Director of the Center for the Study of the Middle East and Central Asia Semen Bagdasarov presented his analysis of the development of the military si

[DARPA]

State Duma deputy of V convocation, director of Center for the Study of the Middle East and Central Asia Semen Bagdasarov presented his analysis of the development of the military situation in the south-eastern Ukraine. Offer it to your attention:

Development of the situation in the south-east of Ukraine shows that in the period from March to May, is expected to deploy large-scale hostilities. This is evidenced by the following facts:

- Adoption of a plan of mobilization with the calculation of personnel training 2 months from the completion of further military units, which are in a combat zone;

- Repair and commissioning of new military equipment in large quantities (more than 200 armored vehicles, hundreds of artillery systems, dozens of helicopters and airplanes) and transfer them to the military units designed for combat operations in the south-eastern Ukraine. Also, the preparation of various types of weapons from the United States and other NATO countries, in particular, sniper rifles and anti-mortar radars.

The actual deployment plan for 2015 of the armed forces of Ukraine - up to 250 thousand. People and, in addition, the creation of the reserve army (similar to the US National Guard) to 100 thousand. Man.

Existing US plans to transfer part of military equipment which is in Afghanistan at the disposal of Ukraine

Today in Afghanistan is military equipment worth more than $ 5 billion. Of these, about one-third can be used for combat operations in the conditions of the southeast of Ukraine. This, in particular, different types of artillery systems and armored vehicles with enhanced armor protection and the ability to counter various types of minefields.

Thus, all of the above cooking show on the plans of the Ukrainian leadership to deploy a large-scale military action to eliminate the LC and the DNR.

Possible options

The most likely plan of warfare may be applying powerful blows simultaneously on two republics or: initially brunt apply to the People's Republic of Lugansk, acting in the same direction at the Donetsk to deter armed groups Donetsk People's Republic.

what to do

In order to deploy the volunteer movement and stay in the south-east of Ukraine a large number of volunteers to urgently adopt the law of the State Duma of the military and private companies (Cheka), thus providing special conditions for volunteers to fight in the south-eastern Ukraine.

Withdraw from the Agreement on air and rail transit to the United States and its allies in Afghanistan to prevent the use of these routes for the export of any material resources, which can then go to the Ukraine, which is very important in moral and political terms.

Warn all the states of Central Asia and the Caucasus, that the use of their territories for transit of military equipment and weapons from Afghanistan through Central Asia - Caspian Sea - Baku-Tbilisi-Kars, followed by switching the Turkish Black Sea coast - the port of Odessa will be viewed by the Russian Federation as hostile to the interests of Russia and the appropriate follow-up.