Russians want Putin and retained the post after 2018

[DARPA]

More than half of Russians would like to see Vladimir Putin has retained the presidency and after 2018. Almost a third, on the contrary, for his care, but many of them are waiting in the presidential chair successor Putin's political line, according to recent research by the Levada Center. Meanwhile, experts believe that the Russians are still not fully felt the impact of the crisis and the fall ekonomichesokgo power-pop is only a matter of time.

55% of respondents to the question, "Who would you like to see as president of Russia after the elections in 2018", named Vladimir Putin. Another man who would go on to a policy of the current president, want to see as president of the 10% of respondents.

Only 18% are ready to support the one who will offer a different solution to the problems of Russia.

It should be noted that Putin's position, according to sociologists, and a half years have strengthened considerably. In April 2013, only 26% of respondents wanted to see Putin's next term, 14% would prefer his successor, and 41% - the president with other political line. Immediately after the Crimean referendum saw the biggest jump in popularity of the president: in April 2014, 49% wanted to see Putin's new term, 13% - political successor, and 22% - an alternative policy.

On the question of whether there is now a politician who could replace Putin responded positively 10% of respondents - almost as much as in the past two years.

Find this person can, if necessary, according to 24% of the respondents, and it is considerably less than in 2012 and 2013 - 47% and 40%, respectively.

But more than half of respondents believe in the indispensability of Putin - 54%, and this is exactly twice as much as two years ago. In 2013, the figure was 31%.

If presidential elections were held next Sunday, the current head of state would vote 55% of all respondents and 88% of the undecided, thus repeating the record last October. In second place, Gennady Zyuganov, with 6%.

The survey was conducted on 19 - 22 December 2014 among the urban and rural population, were interviewed 1600 people aged 18 years and older in 134 settlements of 46 regions of the country. The statistical error at the center, is not more than 3.4%.

The President was positioned as the author of the Crimea, and this explains the rapid growth of its rating, the expert said Levada Center Denis Volkov. In addition, the government is working outside the confrontation with the West and the war in Ukraine. Media, primarily public channels, mobilize voters, representing Russia as a peacekeeper, who is trying to lend a helping hand, and the West has a hand, "do not understand why."

"I would compare it to 2008, when war broke out with Georgia. But then the mobilization lasted for several weeks, and now the conflict lasts for almost a year. This is an abnormal state of constant mobilization supported media, especially state television - indicates sociologist. - Other point of view simply unavailable, and, as a result, we see extraordinary consolidation and abnormal state rankings with inflated numbers. But at the end of year assessment for the first time began to decline. In November and December deteriorated expectations on the situation in the country as a whole and in their own family, in particular. Will fall and ratings of power. "

The main intrigue now is whether the ratings decline gradually, or can we expect a sharp collapse.

Volkov recalls that after the crisis in 2008 in a stagnant power rating dropped gradually and reached its lowest point in December 2011. Then dissatisfaction resulted in mass protests against electoral fraud in the Duma elections.

"If the situation will be like after the Georgian war, the ratings will fall slowly and reach the bottom in just three or four years. If the situation would be worse then all will come faster. But then again, in 2008, there was no such mobilization in the media, "- said Volkov.

So far, indicates a sociologist, a majority of respondents do not directly see problems in Ukrainian politics of the Kremlin, but already beginning to feel the deterioration of the economic situation. It is not necessary that the discontent will focus specifically on the figure of the president and other senior officials.

Political analyst Konstantin Kalachev considers that the request for change arises when the financial and economic crisis will grow into a social and efforts of the authorities seem inadequate, inappropriate demand for justice and even harmful.

However, he believes that now the answers would have been different if the activity of the president "decomposed into a" how he copes with corruption, rising prices, the decision of problems of health and education of migrants.

"The theme of" horses in midstream is not "good at the beginning of the crisis. But if the crisis drags on for years, the belief in the current government moved. While the situation looks like inertia. Putin has so far proved to be effective and are associated with this hope on him. What's next - depends on the speed of development, the depth and duration of the crisis, "- concludes Kalachev.