Black Swan of Vladimir Putin

[DARPA]

Political forecasts - something interesting, but thankless. They are insidious ability to not come true. History throws up surprises that can predict neither the seer, not to mention the professional analysts.
Well, who, in addition to Wang and Casey could have predicted the death of the Soviet Union in one terrible night? And who predicted that after Yeltsin seemed to finally destroy Russia, his place will be someone who will return to our former glory Power? No one in a dream could not have dreamed that the Latin American trip Putin will lead the US into a wild irritation, and they shot the unfortunate "Boeing" over the heads of the defenders of the Donbass. If European politicians could advance at least one eye to look at the mountain waiting for their rotten food and sad cold winter without warm "South Stream", they'll probably be very ponder over whether to drive Russia into a corner stupid penalties. And Minsk truce and its effects are still a mystery.
Based on the surprise factor present in the above events and the like, Nassim Taleb brought his black swan - something unpredictable, radically change the course of history. http://thelib.ru/books/nassim_nikolas_t ... -read.html
Unfortunately, it is not defined clearly enough, whence comes up this Swan and whether it is possible to predict that his appearance. Meanwhile, such a surprise is explained quite simply. It arises from the intention to which all involved moving force. And it can be calculated only by going back in time to the ultimate goal. Black Swan, usually energetically economical and therefore highly effective. It is a minimal impact necessary to achieve the result.
As a rule, black swan creates the situation itself in cases where the hidden processes are much more powerful than the visible. Create it on their own - a problem for the genius. But such a "swan" strategy will always flawless, because it is based on two factors regrets - unpredictability and perfect matching your total.
Modern politicians, with few exceptions, are not geniuses because their plans fail silliest way. Fatal misunderstanding of Russia and its President, which has developed in the West, is due to misconceptions about the government forces and their development in the vast Soviet Union of the past. Our partners come from originally several false assumptions: the Soviet Union disappeared forever, instead it has a dozen different countries, to which the United States or its allies have unlimited influence.
"Friends" have to disappoint. First, the Soviet Union is still here. Political processes are defined much more active power than the will to power (Jung) of individual representatives of the elite. Artificial barriers erected at their direction, can be swept away by these forces in an instant. Centuries-old ties not break in two decades, as well as the Russian language in the former Soviet space, with all due diligence overseas instructors, for some reason can not be replaced in English. Our collective unconscious will stubbornly resist this forced separation and alien implants, and not humanly possible to break it.
Second, the Soviet republics, except, of course, Russia could not and can never become real states. Not because they were not lucky with the presidents and not because of their peoples, who are now for some reason called the root, by virtue of their social, mental, and other features can not create a full administrative staff. Just they have no energy, which defines the state. Within countries, there are no creative forces able to build a viable structure in all areas - economic, social, cultural. They do not have adequate protection, retention and protect the territorial integrity of the internal interference. With the weakness of the forces of the country immediately becomes the object of intervention, which is bound to happen with fourteen Russian "sisters."
Third, one of the global error in any confrontation is an underestimation of the enemy. At the State Department scenario of the future world order somehow forgot to enter Russia, which has much more leverage over its neighbors than it is visible to the naked eye.
In the history of all the artificial short-lived. Centrifugal process on Soviet soil reached at the "point of divergence" in the bloody drama of Ukrainian and moved into its opposite. Centripetal forces are the nations of the former Union to remedy injustices and unification. Imperial plans and nostalgia attributed Putin has absolutely nothing to do with. Such inventions can be left to intellectual exercises brought up on perversion Western analysts. They can not understand that reunification republics under one roof - this is not someone's personal desire, but a cruel historical necessity.
One reason for this - frankly hostile nature of Western intervention, whether a threat LIH in Uzbekistan, economic engagement in Kazakhstan, the color revolutions in Georgia and Kyrgyzstan and NATO in the Baltics. She is unfriendly and in relation to the enslaved territories, and in relation to Russia. It follows the sad conclusion that the entire population - and the Russian and non-Russian - is held hostage by the aggressor overseas. People just blatantly and cynically manipulated. If one of the rulers of the former Soviet Union still had not noticed, they should open their eyes to the obvious fact that bombs and shells in Ukraine exactly the same fall on the heads of the Ukrainian and Russian. Slaveholder, pursuing their selfish interest, spares neither slaves nor overseers. It is the consciousness of the people of the impending danger, and not lust for power or expanding the boundaries, is an incentive to return to the republics in the common house.
Another reason, more serious, associated with the reunification of the Russian world. Disunity for it is deadly because it destroys it from within the deep spiritual foundation - collegiality. One part of it could not remain on the sidelines when the Donbas humiliated and killed another. It would be unnatural for him. Just unnatural situation where millions of compatriots against their will were abroad. Novorossiysk hard and uncompromising war demonstrated the threats provoked such a separate existence.
The third reason - a unique phenomenon of Russian collectivism. Rostislav Ishchenko very rightly said that you can not be a Russian by nationality, not to be Orthodox and even Christian, but feel their involvement in the world. The Soviet Union was a multinational and thus united, until it was destroyed from the outside. The unnaturalness of American domination in the Soviet lands understandable to everyone who is a little psychology of politics. And the Soviet people, so far, despite all the "nationalization", most of them speaking in Russian, can not help but feel its centuries-old ties with Russia and with each other, as well as the complete absence of such ties with Europe and the United States.
In contrast to the tragedy that took place 23 years ago, the restoration of a great power - the process of natural and logical. The biggest problem is the peaceful entry into a single state space of the former republics. Non-existent "banana" sovereignty extremely beneficial ruling elites, so they defend it fiercely. And here the black swan will have to grow and release at the right moment.
This important task requires ingenious solutions. It has to be perfect and the only right. What are your options - then subjected to unnecessary risk situation. When you create a chain of events that can put together a great devastated country, should be considered absolutely all the details of the current situation. Based on the ultimate goal of peaceful reunification of the future, it is necessary to pay attention to several factors:
1. The existence under American influence - a very unstable structure, and therefore short-lived. Aggressive communication is already weak because many aspects of neglect - international, social - for the sake of short-term profit. In addition, the distance factor also plays a weakening one thing to manage from a neighboring town, and another thing - from the ocean, albeit reduced to a level of puddles.
2. Many aspects that underpin the Americans with economic murder of another state, the passage of time may turn against them and play into the hands of Russia. One of them - the incompetence of the government-controlled. Time does not recognize Putin as a potential winner and undisputed, and the US - shamefully defeated, then show the top of unprofessionalism. Politician with at least the rudiments of intuition, immediately dropped to the State Department and the loser to the side of the strong, the more that the Russian president has repeatedly argued that seeking help, he did not give up, even if they are guilty. Clinging same stranglehold over the sinking America, post-Soviet leaders risk to leave the bottom with her.
3. The falling dollar and rising oil prices - are two sides of the same coin. Do not have to be a mathematician to understand that the raise in half dollars in revenue in rubles, too, will be twice as much, and compensates for falling oil prices. The ultimate goal of such a maneuver - awkward price per dollar and the euro will lead to a complete abandonment of them in the country. If the dollar will be worth, say, 300 rubles, who will buy it? That's right, none. Sells oil for dollars - for the same dollars, without conversion to rubles, bought equipment. All ingenious is simple. For this, among other things, the need for state regulation, which fire as fear adherents of liberalism.
What do we see now?
Russian game with falling ruble caused panic in border neighbors, showing that all their "sovereignty" - just a bubble, and the economy is very weak and unmanageable. And it is not tied to America and the EU, as they would love to think, but all the same Russia. The point is not that respects their independence if the Kremlin, and that they do not respect themselves.
The first black swan has become a grand Eurasian project Putin, left far beyond the USSR and automatically strapped to his half dead republic. Because they are between powerful neighbors, to agree among themselves, they were put in the position of "you and no one asks." After all, if Russia, Turkey, China and India will be calculated, for example, the ruble and the yuan, which will make the beggar Tajikistan, who lives at the expense of migrant workers? Or Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, whose dubious welfare depends only on cheapened twice oil? Timely change of policy on the unconditional rapprochement with Russia becomes for them a matter of no preference, and survival. So I want to tell them to forget about the rapture elusive benefits of unlimited power and escape from the transatlantic slave owner as soon as possible and in any manner. You can even in a dress.
The second black swan of a large flock, swim up to the Soviet Union - the rejection of the dollar, making it impossible to further the work of American companies in foreign territories. Government standing in the allowance in unipolar monetary system will collapse into the abyss in an instant. Since none of them has any political foresight, not even an ordinary man in the street intuition, this option has already turned into a nightmare for them and confusion. Therefore, EAEC, TC, and even the CIS FTA may be unlucky for raw materials and political appendages light in the window. Its own economy, as well as its policy, the former republics have not created. To maintain operational society they were only Eurasian connection.
There is no doubt that the former adherents of national and Western values immediately remember the Russian language, "big brother" and the Soviet principles of equality and friendship among peoples. And gratefully accept "dictates" of Moscow, which, presumably, was and will be much more favorable for the republic than cynical looting the US.
Incessant attacks boorish American politicians against Russia and personally against its president can humanly understand. It would be strange if Grounded in a puddle US pleased by this alignment. Pull out of America for what some six months three-quarters of the globe can only Putin. He was the first and so far the only politician in the world, capable of creating their own black swans of this magnitude. Crimea, kontrsanktsii, out of the "South Stream", in line with the dollar goodbye and association in the USSR as a new, more Vanga predicted ... The whole "Swan Lake".
That's just one left unresolved question.
As you know, America has paid five billion dollars for the Crimea to Russia.
I wonder what it will cost the return of the Soviet Union?