Russia hit the critical dependence of the Belarusian products

[HainanWel.com(e)!]

The main conclusions of the government analysts quite predictable - the main victims were ordinary Russians and the Russian response kontrsanktsii virtually no impact on foreign producers.

Who paid for sanctions
The report acknowledges that "almost all the food markets have experienced strong negative impacts associated with a rise in price of imports due to devaluation of the ruble." (Recall that the main reason for the devaluation of the Russian currency has been the introduction of Western sanctions against Russia.) The main result of this was the decline in the quality of consumption due to falling real incomes.


Eastnews
In 2015, real disposable income, and the average Russian salary in real terms decreased by 4% and 9.5% respectively. This not only led to a significant reduction in consumption, but also to a change in its structure: the share of food products increased, while non-food products - fell.

 The report
"The share of food products reached 38% of the consumer basket of Russians. This is much higher than the levels typical for developed countries (10-20%) and even some developing countries (Brazil, on food costs account for 17.8%). "
The authors of the document notes that, according to opinion polls, the Russians started to save on the purchase of cheese and sausage, meat and poultry, fruits, fish and seafood. "Traditionally, the least population saves on bread and bakery products, cereals and pasta", - stated in the document.

 The report
"In general, this indicates a worsening of the quality of life ... It is expressed both in the switch to products of lower price segment, and due to the appearance on the market of counterfeit products."
According to the estimates of analysts of government, for the 2015 per capita consumption of meat has decreased from 73.8 kg / person. to 72.6 kg / person. Sale of beef to the population decreased by 17.5%, pork 2.5%, poultry - by 1.5%. This marked change in the structure of consumption of meat Russians towards the chicken, if in 2013, 13% sold to the population of meat accounted for beef, 22% - on pork, 65% - for poultry meat, now beef share fell to 10%, pork - up 19%, and the share of poultry meat has risen to 71%.

Russians also reduced oil consumption and cheese: the first 9 months of 2015 sales of animal oils population decreased by 2.7%, cheese - by 4.4%.


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At the same time, government analysts do not expect improvement in the foreseeable future. "The economic situation does not allow to expect a quick recovery in demand for food markets, which will be followed by a further shift of the demand structure in favor of the cheaper segment on each of the segments, and the shift in demand from the fish meat and revival of significant subsistence production for personal consumption fruit and vegetables sector "- the report says.

 The report
"Due to the shift in demand for cheaper products Beef will acquire the properties of a niche of expensive product, so massive government support of this segment is not practical."
The overall conclusion of the report's authors, though obvious, but sad: change of food suppliers caused by sanctions and antisanktsiyami, "was paid by Russian buyers."

The modest success of import substitution
"Manufacture of food products has grown only in several categories and could only partially replace banned imported products", - stated in the report. Thus, the positive trend observed in the pig and poultry. Moreover, the production of pork and poultry already exceeds the volume of domestic demand.

Under these conditions, a key challenge for manufacturers of meat and poultry becomes access to export markets, government analysts believe. "However, the decline in food prices world objectively will hinder the growth of Russian exports to new markets, and create a significant share of the redistribution of risks in the domestic market in favor of imported products in the event of cancellation kontrsanktsy. This can only be compensated by the further devaluation of the ruble. "


Eastnews
That is, for the sake of ensuring poultry and pig producers export their products the government is ready to launch another round of devaluation of the ruble, with all the consequences, including the acceleration of inflation. Against this background, a relatively innocuous looks even passage that for animal feed "it is advisable to revisit the issue of the admissibility of genetically modified crops in order to feed."

The second sector, demonstrating the increase in production resulting antisanktsy, is the sector of dairy products, especially cheese production. "Domestic production of cheese in many ways replaces the fallen as a result of the embargo imports. However, the problem of product quality remains acute. Many manufacturers use cheaper substitutes of dairy fat in their products. Thus, imports of palm oil in Russia increased in 2015 to 26% in 2014 ", - stated in the report.

 The report
"The National Union of Milk Producers (Sozmoloko) assesses the amount of falsification in the milk market to 10% in the cheese market - no more than 20-25%. The bulk of the infringements is incorrect labeling of products using non-dairy fats. "
How hurt enemies
The share of beef exports from the EU in total exports in volume terms was only 1.4% in 2013. However, for some countries this percentage was significantly higher. For example, Lithuania has supplied in 2013 38% of its exports to Russia, which accounted for 22% of total beef production in Lithuania.

 The report
"At the same time beef exports from Lithuania in 2015, not only did not decrease with respect to previous years, but increased by 15% in 2014 in real terms, which means that the replacement of the Russian market was found."
The greatest value in terms of exports of pork to the Russian market played in countries such as Lithuania, Finland and Ireland, for which the share of exports to Russia in total exports was 41% in 2013, 17% and 16%. "In this case, the part of the Lithuanian alternative to the Russian market is not found, because the total pork production in Lithuania has decreased in 2015 compared with 2013 year by 10%", - analysts say the government. There antisanktsii worked.

Finland, on the other hand, after a sharp reduction in pork production in 2014 has increased it in 2015. Ireland also shows a steady growth in the volume of production - by 16% compared with 2013 year.

The Russian market is a key export market for poultry meat from Finland and Lithuania. "Despite the drop in total production in Lithuania in 2013-1015 years the volume of exports of poultry meat from the country grew, which indicates that the replacement of the Russian market has been found", - recognize the document's authors. At the same time, exports from Finland, on the other hand, declined, and in 2015 remained below the 2013 level by 12%. Here kontrsanktsii worked.


Eastnews
Poland and Belgium, a significant share of their exports of apples supplied to the Russian market. For example, in 2013 exports to Russia from Poland accounted for 55% of total exports and 22% of the volume of production, and for Belgium - 25% of exports and 21% of total production. In this case replace the Russian market has not been found - the volume of exports of apples from Poland in 2015 was lower than exports in 2013 to 30% in volume and 38% in value.

 The report
"At the same time Poland has increased supplies to Russia of apple juice: in real terms in 2015 relative to 2013, exports increased 15 times in value - 10 times and amounted to 13.5 million euro.".
Thus, the result is noticeable antisanktsy just over two positions - Lithuanian Finnish pork and chicken.

The third rejoices
The main exporting countries of fresh and chilled beef in 2015 remained unchanged compared to the year 2014, their number includes Belarus, Ukraine and Brazil, which accounted for 98.7% of imports. In the physical expression deliveries from Belarus increased by 23%, while in Ukraine - by 34% (!). Imports of frozen beef to Russia comes still mainly from Brazil and Paraguay, the third place is occupied Belarus.


The country imports of meat in the 2014-2015 biennium. Analytical Center of the RF Government, 2016
Supplies of pork in 2015 came mainly from Brazil, Ukraine, Chile and Serbia. The share of Brazilian pork imports to Russia increased from 49% in 2014 to 77% in 2015.

 The report
"Total increase in supply from Brazil and shipments from Ukraine, were among the key suppliers in 2015, comparable to the retired members of the Canadian supply of pork in 2014".
Fundamentally new suppliers of poultry meat in Russia has not appeared in 2015. Belarus increased its deliveries by 26 thousand tons, while Brazil also reduced its supply of virtually the same amount -. 23 thousand tons..

Imports of fresh and chilled fish in 2015 on 2/3 was collateralized by the Faroe Islands, which in absolute terms have increased their exports to Russia twice. "However, eliminated shipments of fish from Norway, which accounted for 60 thousand tons in 2014, none of the exporters was not substituted." - Recognize the government analysts.


The country imports of fish in the 2014-2015 biennium. Analytical Center of the RF Government, 2016
The structure of the exporters of milk has not changed over the past year: the overwhelming volume of imports in Russia as did, and comes from Belarus (96% in 2015). Belarus has also increased as their supplies of butter and others, taking the share of imports in the 78% in 2015. Among the major suppliers of butter and fats also includes Uruguay, New Zealand and Argentina.


The country imports of dairy products in 2014-2015,. Analytical Center of the RF Government, 2016
The structure of the largest suppliers of potatoes, carrots, turnips and other vegetables in 2015 has changed slightly. The main sensation - one of the largest suppliers of potatoes in 2015, entered Pakistan, taking a share of 8% of imports of potatoes in Russia.


The country imports of vegetables in the 2014-2015 biennium. Analytical Center of the RF Government, 2016
Significantly increased the import of apples in Russia, pears and quinces from Belarus -. 88 thousand tonnes, supplies from Serbia increased by 33 thousand tons..

 The report
"However, if you add up the value of growth of imports from Belarus and Serbia, as well as shipments from Moldova and Chile in 2015, the resulting total volume was only 45% of deliveries from Poland in 2014".

Eastnews
The main result of mutual sanctions at this point we have to admit government analysts concluded that "in 2015, significantly increased Russia's dependence on imports of cheese, cottage cheese, butter and other fats and oils from the same country - Belarus". Also on the supply of Belarusian dried milk, apples, beef and poultry meat.