The Bank of Russia expects the decline in oil prices in 2016

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The Bank of Russia stressed today that has a bearish view on the oil market. And it is considering as the basic trajectory of movement of the price of oil per barrel to the end of the year to $ 40., And the average annual price of oil at 38 dollars. Per barrel in 2016.

The source of this forecast for the current year was not difficult to find.

Relatively fresh survey of oil experts, Reuters published a few days ago, this figure includes part in 2016. As for 2017, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation does not belong here in this too vast minority.

Oil-LookForward

However, the main thing that illustrates The above survey, it's a rule of thumb the market: the most probable price of the asset in the future - its current quotation, adjusted for expected inflation and risk premium. The farther from the current day, the greater the uncertainty, and, accordingly, the prize.

When such a method of guided market players, risking his own money - it is their own business. But when this logic moves the central bank, basing their decisions on it in terms of monetary policy, it is a bit uncomfortable. Still, he is not speculative task a priority.