Trump promised to devalue the dollar. Possible scenarios for the ruble

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Trump promised to devalue the dollar. Possible scenarios for the ruble

Сообщение HainanWel.com(e)! » 10 июн 2016, 17:43

In principle, this offers many events, and sooner or later will wait. But for us, probably of great interest, as it will affect all our ruble.

You have to understand one thing, that just such a sharp devaluation of the dollar, as it happens with the ruble will not. The devaluation of the dollar will be smooth and will take several years. For example, the lowest value of the dollar against the euro was the value in the region of 1.6.

When this process starts with an accuracy of one can not say. But thanks to the Yankees solve several problems. They thus devalue its huge public debt, and make their products in the global market more competitive.

But oddly enough still worth keeping an eye on China in this situation. Celestial will also be forced to carry out a smooth devaluation of its currency. Chinese fairy tale is over, and the world's demand for Chinese goods declines. The only way to stimulate demand for Chinese goods, is to make them cheaper, it can be done only through the devaluation of the yuan.

At the devaluation of the dollar has advantages. According to the logic will go up, and the oil, that is the logic of this should be a plus for the ruble ... But not quite so simple ...

Russia is part of the global economy. And all of the above processes will not pass by our side. Our economy is in a serious but stable position. But sooner or later we too will economic growth. But for that our products must also be attractive in price on world markets. Given the high tax burden, regular increases in utility tariffs, the most natural process, again, is the weakening of the ruble against the dollar.

So the devaluation of the dollar, it is not a panacea for our economy. So ruble weakening process in the scenario of the dollar devaluation is inevitable. Will Singe ruble to new heights will strengthen the ruble. But if we are now over a certain period, we see the dollar 65, then, for example, in the 17 year average exchange rate can be 75, 18, 85 and so on ....
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