Population poorer faster than expected

[DARPA]

The head of the Ministry of Labor Maxim Topilin reported that for the year fall in revenue will amount to 4-5%. Ministry of Economic Development forecasts more pessimistic - real wages will decline by the end of 2015 by 9.6% and revenues by 6.3%.

According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the level of real wages in Russia in US dollars (US $ 565.4.) Was in the first half of 2015 is lower than in China (USD 764.3.) And Mexico (US $ 636.6). . In 2014, the average real wage in Russia was 839.7 dollars.

Growth rates of poverty, many have called disastrous, said the director of the Center for Analysis of incomes and living standards of the Higher School of Economics Lily Ovcharov. "The pace of falling revenues were the highest since 1998. And the decline began in 2014. Thus, according to the Federal State Statistics Service, the number of people living below the poverty line at the end of 2014 was 16.1 million people, in 2013 this figure was 15.5 million, "- said Ovcharov. The reasons for the increase in poverty are obvious - it is the devaluation of the ruble, high inflation, increase in consumer prices, including on the products included in the food basket.

The threat of poverty is at the second place among the problems plaguing the citizens of Russia. According to the Levada Center, called the threat of poverty 42% of Russians. Most disturbing of poverty among their citizens are called problems only increase in prices - 78%.

If the Ministry of Labour in its previous estimate of the expected resumption of growth in real incomes at the end of 2015, the Ministry of Economic Development forecast that it will happen no earlier than the first quarter of 2016. But independent economists are not so optimistic.

"I do not expect a quick recovery of income because it is seen possible sources of growth, - says Ovcharov. - The period of light economic decisions that were used the last 20 years, has already passed. Current trends production cuts and falling demand would inevitably lead to an increase of poverty. And even after the recovery of the industry of rapid income growth should be expected. "

Official estimates of poverty in Russia underestimated, says the economist Mikhail Delyagin. "The current cost of living can be compared with a diet of German POWs in Soviet camps" - said Delyagin.

Russians react to the drop in revenue savings, reduced consumption and attempts to build up reserves for a rainy day. Therefore, retail sales are falling even faster income.

"I and the structure of consumption, - said Ovcharov. - Citizens are cutting purchases of delicacies, preferring simple foods. Many refuse to travel abroad, choosing a holiday in the country. Over time, there is a psychological habit of poverty. Some resign themselves to a life on social benefits, surviving on odd jobs. Poverty leads to social apathy - and this is a more serious problem. "

"We have already experienced something similar - says economist Nikita Krichevsky. - Think, for example, 1992. Devaluation of the year happened just 50. Citizens are faced with food shortages, lost jobs and lost their livelihoods. Devaluation of 1998, when four months of the ruble depreciated 3.5 times, citizens have experienced a little easier. Will the foreseeable future even worse than it is now? Will be. But it is not a disaster. Of course, ordinary people are interested in, you will return to pre-crisis level of the values ​​of life. And on these issues, our government does not give the answers. "