What is to blame for Russia

[DARPA]

It is said that Russia annexed the Crimea. They say that Russia sent to the Donbas terrorists. They say that Russia has supplied weapons to the separatists and unleashed a war ...

That's not the really blame Russia.

Although the Crimea, of course, not everything went smoothly turned out that there ...

Crimea as part of Russia as a result - it's right.

However, the method by which the return of the Crimea was made, causes a lot of well-founded complaints from various quarters.

The main problem with the return of the Crimea is that it was made without the consent of the Ukrainian side. And without the approval of the international community in the face of the EU or the UN.

You say, what their damn business?


So Ukrainians about their ATO say the same - how damn business in Russia that they nemnozhno postrelivat in their own cities?

Here we are exchanging arguments for a year, which can be reduced to the phrase "none of your damn business."

And international law also, characteristically, does not answer the question of who is right. Because in the UN Charter there are two conflicting principles - one reads about people's right to self-determination, and the other - on the principle of territorial integrity. And some of the more important principles, no one knows.

And the problem is that the results of the referendum nobody, except Russia, have not acknowledged. And to prove that they are correct? Yes way. Although everything is so clear that the Crimea really voted for Russia, but at the international level is in no way confirmed.

It's like in the alcohol department, where the seller asked to present a passport to make sure that the buyer has 18 years. The buyer may be gray beard down to the waist, but if the passport is not, the seller is not obliged to release the goods. Everyone knows that the seller niggles, but the law on his side. And though you burst - not sell.

And yet the story of the "polite people."

At first it was fun, but in the end turned out not funny. Formally, this is a violation of the agreement on the deployment of Russian troops on the territory of Crimea. And admitted even before the referendum was held. Formally, Russia has blocked the state authorities of Ukraine and the Ukrainian military bases. This is actually an act of military aggression. Power operation.

Tellingly, not blocked by some clubs nationalists and "friendship train", namely, the state authorities of Ukraine.

One business reaction to the riots and pogroms. It's quite another - the blocking of government of another state.

Now, if the Russian special forces detained a member of the Korsun pogrom - then it would be difficult to present something. If fighting broke out, and the Russian troops had "prinuzhdnie to the world," as in South Ossetia in 2008 - the international community, too, could be a long grind their teeth, but in the end the fact of the initial aggression would still remain on the Ukrainian side.

And it turned out that Russian troops protect the inhabitants of the Crimea from the threats that now there is no way to prove it. All the "friendship train" were verbal threats. No one reached the Crimea.

And the most interesting - in self-defense Crimea signed up more people than in the service of the Ukrainian division. And much more. And yet many people forget the fact that the majority of the Ukrainian army served in the community, that is in the units in the Crimea were the same Crimeans.

So try to explain why is needed troop raid the Armed Forces if the inhabitants of the Crimea nobody but the same people in the Crimea, only in the form of Ukrainian is not threatened?

Friendship Train?

How many fighters can come by train? Thousand ultras? Against the twenty thousand self Crimea? And whom they might scare?

In the Donbas ATO it began only a month after the capture of buildings, and RSA Security Service, and the full force of the war turned only two months. It is in the Donbass, which is much more difficult to defend, and where there are no Russian bases.

And while there is no "friendship train" Donetsk to himself missed. Although the train departs. Trains with the same militants and football hooligans, who staged a pogrom in Odessa, and they went to Donetsk. Only in Donetsk they dispersed at once. And as to the Slavic Donetsk and not caught up regular troops with artillery, war began. And to pull troops Kiev took more than a month.

And how do you imagine the contraction forces in the Crimea? In Crimea there is only one way - through Perekop.

The forces, which were located in the Crimea, again, mainly consisted of the Crimean people themselves. Somehow, I imagine bad Crimeans who shot the protesters, as part of which certainly are their relatives and neighbors. Can you imagine? I'm not.

And please note that self-defense was held in Donetsk more than a month after the beginning of the active phase of the ATO, not getting any support from Russia. Vacationer drove only on the second or third month of the war. A self Crimea was enough to hold even a month, but at least a day. Total hours.

In the event of any serious attacks from Ukraine for Crimea, for the Armed Forces would be enough to start the day operation to protect the inhabitants of the Crimea. And it would already be quite justified the operation, the validity of which would not cause no one doubts.

And considering how long the ATO began in Donbass, in the first week of the men on Nivas drove tanks over the fields, stopping Ukrainian APCs literally with his bare hands - in the Crimea, no part of the Russian troops would not be needed for a few weeks.

This means that the Crimea had himself would hold a referendum before Kiev was able to organize any serious military operation.

Keyword - "self".

It turns out that Russia is simply reinsured.

To the extent it reinsured that do more harm than help. Itself transformed by the operation of the annexation of Crimea to rescue aggressive. Anyway, on formal grounds.

We wanted the best, but it turned out as always.

So, Russia's fault that meant well and breaking anything?

Yes and no.

Yes - breaking anything because of his "very good intentions." However, this is not important. Not this, by and large, to blame Russia.

Maybe if Russia is to blame for starting the war in the Donbass?

Movement for federalization, and then the independence of Donbass was largely triggered by the transition of the Crimea to the Russian president and the words of the largest divided nation. The Russian people took it as a signal to the reunion. How to appeal.

However, the motion for federalization rannm on stage was quite peaceful. And only after the arrests and clashes at rallies process began to develop rapidly in the direction of escalation of the conflict.

And the seizure of buildings in Donetsk Regional State Administration and the SBU in Lugansk not produced by the team of Russia. In the early stages it was a mixture of local activists provoked the actions of Ukrainian Nationalists and the SBU, as well as working people Akhmetov who planned thus create an empire in the Donbass.

Who called Strelkova with his team - will not find out here, it's a very interesting story, but it is beyond the scope of this material.

It is important that the initiator of independence of Donbass was not Russian. Moscow to the events in New Russia joined later when things have gone too far.

And this is just a fatal mistake Kremlin - inconsistency of action.

If we took the Crimea during rapid military operation, then it was necessary just as quickly carry out the operation in the Donbas. Just do not say that Russia did not have the manpower and resources. There were.

In April-May to establish an independent Donbass could be several times faster and with fewer losses than in August, and then to displace the APU to arrange "Minsk conspiracy."

If Russia, for whatever reasons, decided to limit the Crimea and not to create a New Russia, it was necessary to prevent the early stages of the movement for independence of Donbass. And not just recommend to postpone the referendum, marking the formal political position then to refer to it with the words, "They did not listen." We had to actually withdraw from Donetsk people, who participated in the April events, it was necessary to seek assurances from Kiev amnesty in exchange for the withdrawal of small arms and so on.

Russia acted last year in the Donbass very hesitantly and inconsistently. Let the process take its course, hoped that everything that happens - the initiative Akhmetov and he will understand in their own backyards. But he could not.

It turned out inconsistently. In Crimea we acted too strongly, more vigorously than demanded by the situation. And in the New Russia on the contrary, very hesitant when it decisiveness required.

First, Russia has carried out a quick and decisive return of the Crimea, and then there is the very slurred, hesitant story Novorossia.

And the contrast between the behavior of Russia in the Crimea and Donbas eventually led to war.

Crimea turned play, Donbass not play in Novorossia fish wrapped.

In the case of the Crimea not figured out the political consequences.
In the case of the Donbas not counted military developments.

Not counted are not taken into account, with the wrong expectations. Lost, did not want or were unable to reach an agreement with participants in the events in Donetsk, Kiev, Europe and the United States.

However, this is not the most important thing to blame the Kremlin or Russia. There are more serious mistake.

The most serious error with regard to the Crimea, Donbass and Ukraine in general lies in the fact that Russia is not involved in any problems of Crimea, Donbass any problems or issues in Ukraine for the past 15 years.

Everything was put on the slide.

And when Russia something ride - you need not be surprised that immediately available experts from the US, which organizes the process to their advantage?

Do I have to blame the United States is that they come from the mouth of Ukrainian cow that Russia itself gave "free-range" in 1991?

24 years old, including 15 years under Putin, Russia (Kremlin) did not show any interest in him who and what the flags of Ukraine runs, which are held marches, in which games are played the young guys in summer camps ... and suddenly - we woke up. Suddenly it turns out that there has grown a generation of radical nationalists, looked up banderofashizm.

Suddenly Russian pogroms began to worry, torchlight processions, the train of friendship ... 24 years, including 15 years under Putin - not to worry, and suddenly so excited that in the Crimea is urgently needed to land troops.

And then, when the Crimea was returned banderofashizm with his "trains druzby" again stopped caring. And so, until the Donetsk not rained phosphorus. Then again, Russia suddenly everything happens so much excited that it took to send vacationers and open Voentorg. And then ... then again banderofashizm stopped caring, and it turned out that Russophobia is possible to conclude a truce and trade ...

It is inconsistent policies. Hence, a lot of problems. Hence the "sudden Crimea" and "slurred New Russia" and "strange Minsk".

Hence the controversy, merged or not merged Putin.

In fact, the Kremlin has in recent years simply has no strategy towards Ukraine. There is no clear foreign policy. There is only the desire to trade profitably. Over all, including Brussels, Washington and even Kiev, who would not be sitting there - Kuchma, Yushchenko and Poroshenko. Trading with those who spits in the face and puts steps, who calls for the eyes of Russian President *** scrap those who directs a portion of the income from trade with Russia against Russia itself. Trading and trade.

Only the desire to trade - this is not a strategy. It's just greed. Just a desire to trade.

The Kremlin is no clear line of conduct consistent foreign policy. Hence, sharp movements, which lead to a corresponding response.

24, including the last 15 years, the Kremlin was not interested in the problems of Crimea. How I lived Crimea, whether he wanted to go back - no one in the Kremlin was not interested. And suddenly! It turned out that it is so important that for the sake of the need to send troops.

24, including the last 15 years, the Kremlin has not thought about any Novorossia, nor about the Donbass. How lived there Donbass, which he had problems as there lived Russian - no one was interested. And suddenly! ..

This implies a reasonable question that the US and the EU have a right to ask Russia - and where you used to be? You also have twenty years needed no Crimea, Donbass no, no Odessa, Ukraine no - why suddenly woke up? Sleep on in his den, dear bear ...

So:

The main thing is to blame Russia - that slept all the past 24 years, including the last 15 years. I slept Ukraine.

I slept through the development of Ukrainian nationalism, slept preparation Maidan, slept until 2 months on Independence mature coup.

I slept and then woke up, caught herself, grabbed the Crimea, pulled and ... decided to continue sleeping. And then suddenly ... And then Donbass Russia again woke up, went vacationers, established Voentorg scattered fire, flooded as it could - the blood, weapons, ammunition and blood again and again ... and has to sleep ...

Russia slept too much.

Slept through the expansion of NATO, Libya slept, slept Iraq ...

But the main thing - slept Ukraine.

Everything else - just a consequence.

The return of the Crimea, which wanted to do so well that in the end did a bad thing. We wanted to do so legally, which eventually made illegal. They wanted to do it without firing a shot, and provoked the war.

It is simply the result of ill-considered actions asleep.

The story of the Novorossia which started doing without Russia, then Russia asked to do, and then helped fend Donetsk, then arranged a truce. As a result, neither peace nor war. Thousands of dead and the result, which is not satisfied with any of the parties. Half of Donbass, which nobody wants.

All this is the result of ill-considered actions asleep.

Russia simply overslept. Much slept.

And all the controversy about the annexation of the Crimea, terrorists, separatists, vacationers, supplying arms - it's just a consequence. Merged or not merged - also a consequence of the dispute.

These disputes would not have happened if Russia's policy has been consistent in at least the past 15 years. Or even the last 10 years. At least ten years.

If Russia has consistently supported the Russian in Ukraine for at least the past 10 years, one would not be surprised referednumu neither in Crimea, nor its results. That would be all so obvious and natural that would be perceived as the only possible result of Maidan.

Yes, and if the maidan was possible, he would be a pro-Russian Yanukovich and banished to 2014, and Yushchenko in 2008.

And if you think a little better, then do not blame Russia that Ukraine had slept, and in that department.

The most important mistake worse - stupid - Russia made in 1991.

There was no separation of Ukraine is absolutely no rational reason other than the desire of some politicians to gain power in the independent state then to defile the UN, PACE and other international organizations. And to cut the state property, not looking back at Moscow. And sitting on the pipeline connecting Russia and the EU.

But it made sense for the Ukrainian politicians and businessmen. For the peoples of Russia and Ukraine in this made no sense.

And it was absolutely not in Russia's interests.

Ukraine and slept - was also not in the interests of Russia.

So, then, it turns out? What is to blame for Russia?

Russia's fault that the last 10-15-25-30 years did not act in the interests of itself.