The market expects that Iran sanctions are lifted and the supply of oil will rise sharply

[DARPA]

On news of the talks on Iran, oil prices have again started to move down. The market expects that Iran sanctions are lifted and the supply of oil will increase dramatically. And since the price determined by the balance of supply and demand, it is natural to assume that prices will continue to move downward. And maybe even heavily down. Already heard predictions about $ 25 a barrel. But let's not get so far ahead.

Let's try to answer three basic questions:

1. Who benefits.
2. What is the price of oil drops.
3. What things are going.


Who benefits from it.

If earlier it was possible to argue heatedly, who the main players on the decline of oil prices - the Saudis or the United States, it is now possible to say for sure - this is the United States.

CAPTCHA - Iran.

Talks on Iran, leading to the lifting of sanctions, Washington has started. Someone who, as the Saudis least want to unlock Iran. Iran and the Saudis - old enemies and bitter rivals, so the Saudis happening at least not in the jet.

However, even before the negotiations on Iran, I was inclined to believe that oil prices lower in the United States. Because the political and economic influence of the US and Saudi Arabia are not comparable. In general, the Saudis have always depended on Washington, on the supply of weapons, from its location. Therefore challenge the US Saudis are unlikely to be mustered the courage - examples of Iraq and Libya are very clearly show what happens when kings and dictators of the Middle East without the support of the defunct Soviet Union today, resolved to thwart global hegemony source of freedom and democracy, the mighty empire of good .

A fall in oil prices played in the United States.

US built up to a maximum of own production and almost certainly influenced the judges (OPEC), so they do not cut production on their part (and it is not profitable and cut, very much need the money). And now the US skillfully brought Iran to ensure that from it could lift the embargo.

So the answer is quite obvious - it makes the United States.

Why the US cheap oil.

At first glance, it is unprofitable States. Slates go at a loss. Traditional oil companies owned by Americans, too, generate less and less profit. Then what?

The answer, which lies on the surface - to put economic pressure on Russia. And maybe at the same time on Venezuela.

Yes, there is such a goal. But this is only part of the game.

Simply lower profits from Russian oil and gas exports to the United States is not enough. This is a half-measure. Ideal - to block oil and gas supplies from Russia, that is, to deprive the Kremlin of the tube through which he breathes the past 15 years.

And how to do it?

Firstly, the low prices for oil and gas lead to a decrease in the cost of oil and gas companies. Including Russian. And the lower the value of the point can then be simply buy.

And secondly, when oil production will increase to the maximum, it will be possible ... to impose an embargo on Russia.

With Iran embargo lifted - at Russia imposed.

Voila!

Presumably such a scenario:

1. Iran embargo lifted.
2. Proposal of oil increases, respectively, reduced price.
3. The oil companies are buying up depreciating.
4. The embargo imposed on Russia.
5. Oil supply falls, prices are rising rapidly.
6. Purchased oil companies start to generate profit.
7. Russia is experiencing shortage of hard currency.

Thus, the loss of cheap oil will be purely temporary and after a year or two offset by rising costs. And for the United States, and for the Saudis. And for other oil suppliers. For all except Russia.

United States eventually will be both economically and politically plus.

Losses incurred in the period of low oil prices, rapidly compensated, Russia will be under tremendous economic pressure, and the bankrupt during the period of low prices of oil shale - it's little things throughout the game. Especially after the rise in prices will be back again to the extraction of shale.

Completely block Russia, of course, impossible.

But the ban to sell oil and gas in dollars and euros - it is possible. And this is important. If Russia will be deprived of export earnings in the form of dollars and euros, there will be shortage of hard currency. And the sale of oil to China in yuan currency deficit problem will not solve.

Which will mean hard currency shortage in Russia - guess from three times. This fall of the ruble to the abyss and rising prices for all imported goods, except maybe the Chinese, which will be bought on the yuan, the proceeds from the sale of oil.

Chinese products, of course, save Russia from the hard deficit of consumer goods, but the shelves still take several deserted look. In stores with Western goods will be walking like a museum. How much will it cost cars - we can only guess.

And not the fact that China will buy this amount of oil and at such prices that Russia could then use the proceeds to buy yuan everything that is imported now.

The problem is that over the last 24 years the industry in Russia has declined greatly, in some sectors to zero. Many types of consumer goods in Russia is no longer available, only imported. A need to import currency. No currency - no imports. And the main source of foreign currency - oil, gas and other raw materials.

If oil and gas foreign exchange earnings will fall twice - the volume of imports fell too twice, respectively, prices of imported goods will rise in two or more times.

And most importantly, if our big business would be deprived of the flow of dollars and euros, which he used to ...

But then I will not speculate.

What things are going?

Part of this question has already been answered.

Note also that in case of realization of the above plan, Russia will not be so important, what then set the price of oil - 60, 80, or $ 100 per barrel. If Russia will be embargoed, neither 60 nor 80 or $ 100 per barrel, we do not get all the same. Obtain a certain amount of yuan likely quite small, because China will not buy from Russian oil bypassing the embargo on any market price. It will be something like the "oil-for-pipe". Or "oil-for-shirts". Or "oil-for-slippers".

But there is another important point.

The fact is that now, as oil prices go down, the whole world, including the United States, actively forming reserves. They say that all storage is already filled to capacity. But it civil repository. And as there are military - nobody knows. And they certainly are gaining not only crude oil, but also fuel.

I assume that goryuchku soon will fill all that is possible. Tanks, cans, tubs, buckets, cans. Literally everything. As the hostess before prolonged shutdown of water.

And then, when it imposed an embargo on Russian, depending on further developments, you can either sell stocks at a higher price, or ...

Fuel reserves in case of unfavorable outcome will be very useful to fill the tanks and planes.

Thus, the case is very likely to go to a true war.