The strategic partnership between Russia and China. Reasons and goals

[DARPA]

In most analytical descriptions of the relationship between Russia and China, a lot of rumors, speculation and superficiality. Depending on what the basic view is held by one or another expert China appears in the materials or the most dangerous potential enemy of Russia, or almost the most loyal and trusted friend, who is able to protect us with his broad chest from any Western adversity.

In reality, as always, everything is a little different. Each of our countries has its own set of interests and priorities. On many issues our positions are identical or similar, there are other non-critical differences, then we are the third if not enemies, then competitors. But in general, to date on strategic issues large differences do not exist, so that our states quite closely and effectively develop interaction.

Most of Russia's interests in relation to China is well described. Three basic vector.

1. China is a huge potential for the Russian market of energy that can break the monopoly of European consumers. The rapid development of this area of cooperation is constrained by the huge amount of necessary financing of infrastructure projects, but the mechanisms are being worked out, the agreement shall be concluded and the progress is obvious enough.
  
2. China is the world's largest consumer of the products of our defense industry, which in a relatively small (though constantly growing) internal financing these industries allows them to stay afloat and even successfully implement Niort to create a new generation of weapons. In this area, too, there are a number of difficulties and contradictions. China has always insisted on the simultaneous sale of finished products and technologies to further its domestic production on its territory. This significantly reduces the potential for future deliveries, but also makes our defense industry to keep moving forward in terms of development of the next generation.

3. Due to the deterioration of relations between Russia and the West, including in economic and financial spheres, our country is becoming a vital transport links in these areas from west to east. Today our lending banks and large companies partly made by Chinese banks, and this process is only growing. Russia has no less need exists with respect to a completely different consumer products and industrial equipment. China in recent decades actively developed in all these areas our own production, including production of the most modern technological equipment. Given the state of our economy and objective unreasonableness restore all types of industries in the country, a factor of long-term trade relations with China is Russia's most important and long-term.

Much less is known about the needs of the Chinese side in establishing long-term and friendly relations with Russia. Usually it comes down to the common desire of our country to get rid of the dictates of the dollar, together against military threats in Eurasia and consistently raise the weight of our countries in all international organizations. That is in fact what has been said it is about anything. If you stop here, it objectively it seems that we do not develop fruitful equal cooperation, and China, using the weakness of modern Russia and its problems in the West, is actively promoting its influence on our country. And in many materials can be traced precisely this view. Indeed, if we take only the money, output and impact on the world economy, the positions of our countries are not comparable. As is easy to imagine, and that claims to the place of the dollar is the yuan, and Russia engaged in this struggle only to facilitate the ascent of the yuan to the international podium. Especially because the ruble in its present form on this site in any way can not claim. Even with the oil and gas. According to some analysts if not nuclear deterrent and the US claim to own this piece of the pie, then China would have long and happy otel from Russia to the whole Asian part.

Some truth in these arguments there. In the sense that in the geopolitics of friends does not happen, each party pursues its own interests first and foremost. A weak certainly eat.

A much larger truth, though too small is, assuming that Russia is constantly dragged between a rock and a hard place. China is the anvil, hammers West. We are, as it were constantly forced to bend and under someone else to climb in order to avoid a full and final "flattening" between blacksmith tools. Such an element of real strategy is present. Finintern, invested huge capital in China, on the one hand, seeks to establish control over Russia, so that it in turn controlled by a NW China conscientious performance of secure embedded in it. On the other, it is the same, but after China puts pressure on Russia in order to establish on the part of China's economic control over Russia. The real situation is much more complex and ambiguous, but it is present.

In any case, the most terrible dream for both the United States and to complete it Fininterna friendly relations between Russia and China. And on closer inspection turns out to be really Russia for China is very important and interesting partner for solutions of its strategic ambitions. All of this is important for Russia and China.

For example, energy. Yes, today China has no problems with the import of the same oil from anywhere. Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. But there is one problem. All delivery methods of oil or liquefied natural gas to China from the Middle East are under US control. Everything rests on the narrow Strait of Malacca, which is controlled by the US Navy. China has made repeated and continues to attempt to solve this problem. But a full-fledged strategic decision not found.

Pipeline from Iran rests on the zone of instability Afghanistan-Pakistan. Construction of a naval base in Pakistan itself does not solve the problem because of the need in the same vulnerable pipeline.

China is making efforts to break into the Indian Ocean through Myanmar, but runs into fierce opposition the US have increased dramatically financial support to the regime of this country. The importance of this trend says at least the fact that his first foreign visit after his election to a second term, Obama struck exactly in Myanmar. The situation with the Chinese base on the coast of Myanmar podvisli.

China does not give up and tries to lobby for construction of a canal from the Gulf of Thailand in the Andaman Sea through the narrowest place in Thailand, in response to this gets another color revolution in Thailand without any clearly defined goals and meaningful action, but easy to block these initiatives.

Oil is available in Vietnam, but the relationship with the neighbor traditionally was not easy, and Vietnam to ensure peace of mind is actively developing cooperation with Russia and the United States.

Finally, China is attempting to build a canal in Nicaragua, Panama parallel. Moreover, to the protection of the facility is planned to involve Russia in full. But this project has not yet started in practice.

In general, all these examples show that China, for all its economic power has a tremendous weakness that could quite quickly put him on his knees, cutting off access to external sources of raw materials. The Achilles heel of China's logistics is nesamodostatochnosti Chinese economy, heavily dependent on imports of various raw materials and export of finished products. Regarding the latter, primarily in Europe. All transport channels are controlled by China's geopolitical enemy - the United States.

And even with respect to foreign economic ties with Latin America, for which China has long been a partner number one in terms of trade, it is very difficult. Naval bases in the Philippines and the United States especially relations with Taiwan also do not guarantee peace of mind on the trade routes.

That is exactly the problem of transport logistics of foreign trade in China is for him the most important and urgent. Especially on the eve of the inevitable collapse of the dollar, and after that in thirty years as the inevitable showdown with Fininternom around Hong Kong.

We will not dwell on the methods by which China is trying to resolve the issue of Taiwan and the Philippines, the things are slowly and mainly through the progressive power pressure, look to the West.

Russia is China full way to resolve all key logistical problems in a westerly direction. Moreover, there are only two reasonable options on how to solve this. Or China should seize Russia as a whole (which he simply no one, including the West, do not give), or do not try to put pressure on Russia and put it at a disadvantage. China needs Russia just as a voluntary full partner fully satisfied with the results of cooperation. After all, Russia on this route will control the path of goods between China and Europe. Plus Russia's own resources can completely eliminate the need for China to oil from the Middle East. That's not so long ago it was a question of oil supplies from Iran to Russia. On the surface it looked like an attempt to escape from Iran sanctions gracefully. In fact, this testing capabilities oil supplies to China again, bypassing the sea routes controlled by a hostile party.

All projects recently declared oil and gas pipelines, and in particular, the project of high-speed railway route Beijing - Moscow have the same goal - to solve the logistical problems of China, constraining its ambitions as a global leader. Once these problems are solved, nothing and no one is able to interfere with China began to realize the benefits of global economic leader.

Of course, all this is understood not only in Moscow or Beijing, but also in Washington. Events in Ukraine is largely due not only to the pressure on Russia or the desire to limit its political influence in the region, or to break the economic ties between Russia and Europe. No less Ukrainian war associated with attempts to create a spatial barrier to the most convenient and simple logistic route from China to Europe. In the last years of Yanukovych between Ukraine and China began to develop close ties so that it has acquired the status of a direct threat to the United States. And that is why the part of Russia took two extremely precise steps to organize an effective opposition. I'm talking about the Crimea and the strategic partnership with Turkey. Crimea is the future transshipment base, while Turkey is straits. This two keys to the future of a new southern route of the Silk Road. On the northbound opportunities to limit the US is much less, although in the future there can be some surprises.

Understanding these factors explains why the issue of Ukraine China is cautious though, but totally pro-Russian stance. And it's not a matter of trying to use our problems with the West for their own purposes. It is a question of economic security of China.