What will happen to the ruble ? Or the last move of Putin

[DARPA]

In recent years, we can observe a certain hysteria in the information space that surrounds us. There are no news release in which we have not talked about the dollar and the euro. The feeling that every citizen of Russia suddenly become currency speculators. From a poor student to the elderly grandmothers nibble sunflower seeds on a bench yard.
The latter being actively debated, as the morning was worth the euro. In his eyes have not seen, and have a genuine interest. In my words there is not that cruel smile, which might seem to you, my dear reader. Personally, I understand the motives of the hysterical mood honest citizens. Life itself causes them to become investors. And the main question on the agenda as invest your savings in order not to lose. Standard solutions, of course, lie on the surface. Salt, matches and buckwheat is a kind of gold and currency reserves of the population. Population educated in the spirit of "if only there was really bad, but it's better just will not."

I hope the majority of my readers have joined the aforementioned reserves. If so then it is time to reflect on other sites for investment.

In meditation we will try to rely on facts, giving them some interpretation. Maybe we do it will be in an unusual sequence, but it is for you to my reader could not get bored.

What happens to the ruble. The short answer is in the style of our president: - "It is sinking." And that is why this is happening, let's break.
 
We somehow trying to impress that the ruble is closely related to the cost of oil barrels. There is some truth in this statement. But only a fraction. Think it's fair to say that the exchange rate is closely linked with Putin. To be more precise with his behavior and steps in the performance of his "cunning plan". Lately, you can often find a lot of irony about the "cunning plan of Putin." Treat this irony as you like, but to deny the fact that he is a great strategist and tactician is not possible. And for smaller events he had his plan long before they occur.

And for the ultimate showdown hard to imagine that he went without incremental planning.

Incidentally it is worth noting that all the time Putin's strategy can be summarized in four steps.

Step one: Putin offers a mutually beneficial compromise. Keyword - mutually beneficial.

Step Two: If the partner refuses, Putin is doing, so that conditions become favorable and unfavorable to him partner.

Step three: Putin proposed partners compromise on unfavorable conditions for the partner.

Step Four: Putin receives consent from a partner or otherwise offers to strangle him on the scarf. The word "offering" is ambiguous.

In the economic war with the United States, he went to the fourth step. Consent as I think you are not in doubt, we can not wait. So, there is only a scarf.

What you need to do to your strong opponent made the decision.

The first - to find allies.

The second - to convince the enemy that he himself so decides.

The third - to knock the stool from under his feet.

Putin allies found. Some objective reasons why it was not difficult to find them, we will examine below. While dwell on the fact that the first step of his tactical maneuvers is always win-win proposition.

To convince the enemy that he is decides Putin began back in 2011. Surprised? Do not be surprised. It was then that Putin had a clear picture of the situation this year. And the situation in Ukraine and the Crimea, and the sanctions were planned steps. Be surprised if I say that planned by Putin?

So what happened three years ago?

Farce that deserves a standing ovation. September 25, 2011 the then Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin, Russia makes a sharp move in the direction at the time of President Medvedev. Does not just anywhere, but in the United States. And it makes the person who worked with Putin in the distant '90s under the wing of Sobchak in the then city council?

The man who for all these years has been close to Putin? Because of disagreement with the growth of military and social spending?

And what is the reaction Medvedev? He solemnly invites him to resign? This is the best Minister of Finance. Without honors and laurels. It's a shame, I guess.

If you take any textbook on the preparation of embedded residency, then this scheme will find in strict compliance. Insult to his homeland, disagreed with the party line, a shameful flight from his post. The resident must be a reason to betray the motherland. Then drain unnecessary information to the enemy and ready to sting. It was in the KGB. Methods have not changed. And only now we see that sang Kudrin State Department. What gave leadership to weaken Russia. As has been described technique manipulation of the gas transportation system of Ukraine.

All raffled on the notes. Only the notes written in the Kremlin. The enemy then was sure that it was he decides.

Remained stool. That is the petrodollar. Just because it did not knock. Need partners instead of petrodollar something different to offer. The ruble, for example. Exporters have Europe, CIS countries and some Asia. Russia has the right to sell resources for rubles. Just for this, there are two obstacles.

The first has already been overcome in practice. To boldly declare itself it needs to be backed by gold. What is being done. According to the latest gold reserves in the country are estimated just over 1,000 tons. Only in the third quarter of 2014, he added 55 tons.

A general increase over the years in the area of 14%. This is a record, gentlemen. All-time record. This is not a green wrapper. Some ignorant skeptics say that 1000 tons of Russian incomparable with gold reserves in the United States. Yes, the US has just over 8,000 tons. But in terms of the money supply goes zilch. About 5 cents on the dollar. And more. The last audit of reserves was in 1953. Since then, just make sure that the gold is there. Representatives of the Bundesbank tearfully asked not to return, so at least show them the German stocks (about half) stored in the United States. Denied. And rightly so. Each show. And how to show what is not. Otherwise, what's the point to deny.

The second and most interesting for us. To buy from Russian energy resources for rubles need to have these same rubles. You can get them something selling in Russia for rubles. But we must not raise the volume, and will be noticeably. There is a second way. Sold for rubles, not only products. Sold for rubles in dollars and euros, and of all other currencies. And large volumes. Going to an agreement with the Allies, Putin has made them win-win proposition. And knowing that in case of failure of either waiting disadvantage, or scarf, the Allies agreed. They move to settlements in rubles, and Putin is doing so that partners rubles to purchase at low cost. To meet these conditions it was necessary to collapse the cost and cause wild excitement to sell rubles. Easy to say derail cost. Need a farce, the scale of which the world has never seen. Well, so did the need.

It all began in late November, when all the media is thrown Information about the unprecedented ruble CBR repo December 2. Allegedly for organizing mass buying of currency. It was placed on the slope of unprecedented size. As a result, on December 2 last auction of $ 2.77 trillion rubles. And again a wave of information about stuffing unprecedented trillions. You, dear reader, just think about the amount of 2.7 trillion. rubles.

It's crazy, right?

However, as we know, there is just a lie, there is a blatant lie, and there are statistics. Referring to the statistics of such trades in the past three months.

09.12.2014 3 210 Bln. Rub .;
02/12/2014 2770 Bln. Rub .;
25/11/2014 2790 Bln. Rub .;
18/11/2014 2690 Bln. Rub .;
11/11/2014 2695 Bln. Rub .;
31/10/2014 2850 Bln. Rub .;
28/10/2014 2930 Bln. Rub .;
21/10/2014 2770 Bln. Rub .;
14/10/2014 2380 Bln. Rub .;
07.10.2014 1 990 Bln. Rub .;
09/30/2014 1830 Bln. Rub .;
09/23/2014 2400 Bln. Rub .;
09.16.2014 2 150 Bln. Rub .;
09/09/2014 2250 Bln. Rub .;
02/09/2014 2100 Bln. Rub ..

Well, how? What happened Dec. 2, 2014 extraordinary? Absolutely nothing. Well, it's nothing in the statistics. But after eating plenty of emotional information stuffing, market participants began to warm up for sale rubles. Then came the statement about the dangers of speculators and the need to introduce criminal liability for speculation. And what is the result? As a result, Russia's partners got the opportunity to purchase cheap ruble virtually unlimited quantities. Who? For those who have decided to make this hype. Suffer, of course, ordinary people. But who said it would be easy?

Why cheap rubles were prerequisite for partners? Let's look at an example, which, however, on the verge of fiction.

Merkel has $ 100. Price of oil barrel is $ 50. How many barrels Merkel buy? The correct answer is 2.

Merkel has $ 100. The dollar price of 80 rubles. Price barrel in terms of US Dollars (50 * 80) 4000 rubles. Merkel exchanged at the rate of $ 100 on their rubles and received 8,000 rubles. How many barrels of oil Merkel buy? The correct answer is 2. But it still does not buy for rubles.

What will happen to the ruble, if Putin, providing it with gold, declare it as a means of payment? The ruble will become all need. Well, if not all so very much. A shop selling rubles will be covered. Skewed increase in demand and supply reduction will bring down the cost of other currencies in rubles. It is difficult to predict to what extent, but we assume that around 20 rubles per dollar. How much will it cost a barrel in rubles, if not change the price in dollars? Multiply 50 by 20, we get 1000. What will buy Merkel at 8000 rubles? The correct answer is 8 barrels. Such a proposal is unlikely that anyone would refuse. This is a decent compensation.

Of course, this example is highly primitive. Panic and landslides reverberate in many markets. But what will be dealt a significant blow to the dollar that's for sure. To what extent can not claim. However, such predictions for the near future from the "Golden Beetle" Jim Sinclair, the cost of an ounce in 2020 to $ 50,000 are not seen as delusional.

But apart from Europe on the world map, there is another, larger players. This is China with its rapidly growing economy. Is it profitable to China collapse of the US economy and the dollar, and if he reserves in US dollars and trading mainly with the US? In the short term it is not profitable. In the long-term imperative. Let me explain why. A great power with a billion people work for the green paper. Moreover, the US debt growing much faster than production in China. China placed in a situation where it may be that decades of development have gone down the drain. That is why China has recently ceased to increase their reserves denominated in US dollars. And concentrated on the same gold.

Situation when China buys Russian energy resources for the gold and sells products in Russia for the same gold quite real.

Holiday, and only.

Only here on this holiday dollar is no longer invited. He do not belong there.

Understand whether the US situation? I think that it is. Only this time the script is written and re-play it later. There really are a couple of methods in store for Russian response. This shift in power and direct military aggression.

With the change of power came a problem. The more criticism pouring Putin, the more its rating not only in Russia but also in the United States. The situation with Navalny and others like them has been very instructive. This team should have a high rating in Russia. And to be an opponent of Putin. Tried. The more they are enemies, the lower rating. Tried to soften rhetoric against the authorities. Ranking slightly increased. So, to Navalny was rated it must be an ally of Putin. But what the hell he had surrendered? I would look into the eyes of gosdepovtsa to which reached the principle of this vicious circle. And where now this fellow non-system? Milled wheel of history. Well, yeah, God bless him. There will be others.

From a military aggression too ambush. Russia is not Iraq or Libya. The ground operation was doomed to failure. History has shown many times that the most gallant guys did not reach as far as Siberia, stuck in the snow. Russian army is not at the level of the 90s. Ideas preventive nuclear strike no more than shaking the air. All nuclear potential of Russia not to destroy. And that means, followed by a return more stringent and unpredictable. But then the rest will be the envy departed to another world. Therefore, the threat of war is hopeless.

So, we started with the investment. They also ended.

In the short term the purchase of currency for rubles is gone train. Would you like to jump into it? The legs do not break.

If there is a foreign exchange investment, then just before the New Year, go to the ruble. New Year's Eve many fabulous happening in the country. And Yeltsin tired. Good time until the whole country is distracted by the Christmas tree, champagne, and Olivier, in his New Year greetings to announce the transition to ruble payments for energy supplies.

And it is better not to rubles, and in gold. His fall is possible number of objective reasons.

But this is more a medium-term option for one to three years.

And of course if you do not invest directly in speculative instruments, the commodity. Real estate will always increase in value.

Well, the main thing without much panic and a Happy New Year.
Sergey Smirnov