9.3.14. 16:22. Detailed commentary on the military analyst "colonelcassad"

[DARPA]

The events of recent days clearly indicate that the junta goes to strategic defense in the Donbas.

1 strengthens the position under Mariupol, Artem, and Constantinovka Lysychansky. It is not about the occurrence of relying on these cities, we are talking about their holding in defensive battles. Issue cease shelling Donetsk is already on the agenda, and his decision to take about a week. The junta will certainly be here to persist for political reasons, since the cessation of terrorist attacks in Donetsk will be too clear signal that is a disaster for even the most uporotyh "European Ukrainians"

2 Leaving more than 20 settlements in Luhansk People's Republic says that attempts to carry out the ambience of the city with open flanks done. What can be saved, will pull out of the boiler to the south-west of Luhansk, then the front will slowly move away to the north of Lugansk, because in the current configuration of the front, he runs the risk of covering beats mechanized army of New Russia. A huge column of armored vehicles in Krasnodon demonstrates the potential power of such attacks, which have to fend off the junta simply nothing.

3 Hunt removes troops from Perekopa and drives them to Mariupol and Odessa. With a plan of military provocations by the Armenian and Chongar can say goodbye. Huge losses punitive battalion "Crimea" by brandishing as seriously weakened the potential for deployment in Crimea reconnaissance and sabotage activities. The junta initially made ​​a fundamental error when part of his forces began to concentrate in Perekopa. They were not sufficient to capture any of the Crimea, or to reflect the impact of the Russian army from the Crimea, and several battalions with reinforcements, quite possibly the junta is just not enough time in the decisive battles for Shakhtyorsk Red Ray. As a result, they still had to drive on the Donbass, but when they are strategically change anything longer can. Well, the Crimea, and thus did was removed from the agenda, the junta now frankly not up to it, so that the ambitious plans of the military and political pressure on the Crimea was ordered to live long.

4 A similar pattern and in Transnistria. The forces that the junta has concentrated there, now removed and driven at Donbass close the hole in the front. Joint plan with the United States and Moldova pressure on Transnistria, died before birth. Now there is frankly not up to attacks, so anything serious against Transnistria junta will not be able to concentrate.

5 The fourth wave of mobilization is intended to somehow make up for their losses, but "success" it will be similar to the third wave, and the fact that the arm fresh meat BTR-60/70 and machine guns 30s issue, clearly indicates that waste militarily human material will be armed with obsolete and outdated weapons, resulting in the change of bleeding talent teams will come "Ukrainian Volkssturm" - senseless and merciless, against which even punitive battalions will appear as part of sverhboesposobnye.

6 Note the persistence of the junta in the separation of punitive and army units. Punitive and did began issuing heavy equipment, thus repeating a bad experience with the release of the Nazi armed forces of individual units of the SS with its own hierarchy, technique and submission. The main problem in these parts, training of commanders, and that entails a systematic high losses in men and materiel.

7 Thus junta meets fall in the transition from defense to attack, and the resources to hold the entire line even straightened the front is clearly insufficient. It should be understood that even if the junta will stretch from Donetsk to Berdyansk solid front line, when her breakthrough, close this hole will also be nothing. In general, the size of the theater of operations clearly exceed the ability of the parties. The junta has faced exactly the same problem faced by the army of New Russia in June, when she was trying to keep large areas without sufficient forces for this, which leads to breaks in the front. Now in this same position was the junta, thus emphasizing that the operational initiative with a lack of strength for control over significant areas, is the key to victory. Owning operational initiative can choose the direction of impact, concentrate forces there, to achieve local superiority and efforts to convert the captured towns and cities and burning skeletons enemy vehicles with charred corpses lying along the roads.

8 Since the junta to seize the initiative can not yet, but the concentration of 1-2 teams to counter-attack under Zaporozhye requires a few more days, then it began to retreat, during which tries to free up additional forces for the southern front, moving with a tight defense held on positions. Army chief of New Russia is to preserve the captured operational initiatives, as it is now more than offset the advantage of the enemy in manpower and equipment. In this respect, leading the offensive in several areas, most importantly do not overdo it and do not fall under the Cleave mechanized forces junta (with parry these blows, even in August, the army of New Russia was not all right).

Overall, as of September 3, you can confidently say that the fascist junta moved to the Donbas to strategic defense.