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US Dollar for 100 thousand rubles in Russia in 2020 - optimistic scenario of a new cycle of World petrodollar system PDF Print E-mail
Sunday, 23 August 2015 17:40

We watch the last year  the rapid process of devaluation of currencies of oil-producing countries, coupled with the rapid decline in oil prices, that were caused by the global restructuring of the world's economic system - the world is beginning a new cycle of the world system of the petrodollar, established after the Second World War and the economic prosperity of all the existing main actors of the world economy .
As you know, the world system of the petrodollar is a kind of cycle, during which the oil-producing countries sell oil for dollars, which are issued by the volumes of crude oil and products from it produced at all cycles of production to final pootrebitelya supporting the rapid growth of oil production and so the circle that is particularly beneficial to the Government of the United States, because, firstly, the dollar is the main measure of the cost of raw materials, and, secondly, the oil-producing countries, receiving US dollars for oil, buying these dollars all them the right products around the world and invest the same funds in US securities. So, according to statistics, the export of capital from the oil-producing countries in 2014 amounted to 812 billion dollars, and it is estimated that in 2015 the decline in exports of capital from the oil-producing countries to reach at least 253 billion dollars.
Reduced export of capital from the oil-producing countries is almost continuously from the highs of 2006 experienced a sharp drop in 2008-2009 due to a sharp drop in oil prices, and by 2015 approaching the lows of the past 18 years, and the trend will continue for prodolzhena- Essentially, 2015-2016 years-is analogues in 1988-1989, when there were similar processes and also started a new cycle of neftedollara- against the backdrop of falling oil prices began to develop manufacturing in China, giving impetus to the development of the world economy.
The need for a new cycle of the petrodollar is caused by the fact that other major world geopolitical players, except the United States and European countries began to move away from the dollar in the calculations and move bilateral deal on the supply of crude oil bypassing the dollar, which was to undermine the position of the dollar as the world currency, so a reboot the entire world system has become inevitable - US loosen these players.
Than it threatens to oil-producing countries, including Russia? And that would be a repetition of the 90s, with galloping hyperinflation, sharp decline in social expenditures due to the fact that the world economy just needed a very cheap oil for the new run cycle of economic development, so 100 thoUSAnd rubles to the US dollar can already start to give in the next few years, until 2020, it is quite possible, it is also possible that cheap oil will emerge a new workshop of the world, as it was China, so now may be India if China will not be able to adapt to new conditions. Then, after the start of economic growth, oil prices again will be in demand again starts its growth, but it will happen no earlier than 2025, and in the next decade could see a very low price for energy and hundreds of thoUSAnds of rubles for one US dollar.


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