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Nearest solar minimum can cool Russia - VIDEO PDF Print E-mail
Tuesday, 30 June 2015 09:00

Long-term trends of solar activity indicate that the next phase in the life of quiet Sun can not only slow down the climate change, and to cause appreciable reduction in the rate of growth of average annual temperatures in northern Eurasia and in the northern parts of Canada and the United States, say astronomers in an article published in the journal Nature Communications.

Solar activity is determined by the number of Sunspots and solar flares associated with changes in the magnetic field of the star. The cycle of solar activity - high to high - lasts about 11 years. In the years of high solar activity and enhanced frequent magnetic storms that can cause both technical problems and ailments in humans, often observed aurora.

The longest known decline in solar activity was discovered in the late 19th-century astronomer Edward Maunder on the results of the study of archives observations of the Sun. Maunder minimum lasted from 1645 to 1715, with associated "Little Ice Age" in Europe. A second similar episode, named "low Dalton," was recorded after the start of regular observations of solar activity from 1790 to 1830.

Richard Wood (Richard Wood) from the UK Met Office in Exeter and his colleagues found that a kind of Maunder minimum can begin in the next few decades, studying the history of fluctuations in the power of solar activity over the past few centuries.

As the scientists explain, until recently, the Sun is in a phase of so-called "Great solar maximum", in which the active light was slightly higher than the long-term norm. However, the current 24th cycle, which began in January 2008, was a record weak, and at one time astronomers have feared that the light falls into "hibernation".

Wood and his colleagues are concerned about such a scenario, we decided to find out what climate change will bring for an offensive similarity Maunder minimum or a "little brother". Using data accumulated over the years of observations of the Sun, the authors created a computer climate model that takes into account the onset of this minimum.

As it turned out, the consequences of "calm" on the Sun will be visible quite strongly, although not in all regions of the globe. For example, in Europe, the pace of global warming will slow down, and the average temperature will rise by degrees less than is expected today.

Most of all, they will manifest themselves in the polar regions of the northern hemisphere, where temperatures in some regions of Western and Eastern Siberia, northern Canada and the United States will fall to 1.5 degrees Celsius. As a result, the average temperature in some parts of these regions not only to grow, but will fall slightly compared with today. On the other hand, in general, the effect will not be enough to stop climate change, and the average temperature will continue to rise, albeit with a "shift" back for 2-3 years.

As pointed out by scholars, it is quite possible that this scenario will not be executed if the next solar cycle will return to "normal" values ​​that were observed in previous decades. In this case, global warming will continue with the current pace. However, do Wood and his colleagues believe that at least still occurs, based on the observations of the "bottom" of the current cycle in October 2013.


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