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Gold and diamonds will end in 20 years - VIDEO PDF Print E-mail
Thursday, 02 April 2015 15:00

Within 20 years we will witness an acute shortage of many commodities. Write about this, analysts Goldman Sachs. According to their calculations, gold, diamonds and zinc remained just two decades, and the reserves of platinum, copper and nickel will not be enough for more than 40 years.

"The combination of two factors - a very low concentration of metals in the earth's crust and a very small number of really high-quality deposits - indicates that certain raw materials actually there are few" - wrote Eugene King, an analyst at the European division of Goldman Sachs in the sector industry.


Explored reserves of metals. Left-hand scale: absolute values. Right scale: how many years will be enough

He also noted that gold has more than 4 thoUSAnd. Years is a measure of wealth and even the ancient Egyptians understood that the metal is not only beautiful and brilliant, but also very rare.

"The relative scarcity and market confidence in the limitations of new fields will be the main driver of growth in the prices of these rare metals," - said the King. Moreover, experts predict that the peak of gold production will be reached this year, followed by a decline. By the way, that the peak of gold production will be in 2015, said the company is also in the forecast Goldcorp.



It should also be noted diamonds: their cost is mainly determined by just their rarity and, in the case of natural diamonds, uniqueness.

In general, the analysis of Mr. King may indeed be true, but only in the case of proven gold reserves actually start to decline. Then, of course, is already no matter what the amount of short positions in futures on gold, it will still go up in price, and fast enough and high. Another question - what would happen if suddenly miners find new deposits of "yellow metal". It also can not be excluded, and thus the forecast Goldman Sachs analyst is applicable only in part.

Generally, if the gold stocks really are depleted, it could trigger a real war for gold, and interest in fiatnym currencies will disappear.



Supply reduction - only one of the possible causes of the rising cost of gold. Experts voiced by others, such as Asian demand. It is Asia should become a locomotive for growth in gold prices. Australia & New Zealand Banking Group predicts that in the short term prices will remain at $ 1,100 per ounce. But then the growth of wealth in Asia, the growth of investments and actions of central banks in emerging markets will lead to increased demand. If the movement towards a more open China's economy will be problematic and the global financial turmoil continues, prices could rise to $ 3.23 kyr.

Traditionally in Asia, people buy jewelry with an increase in wealth, and in some countries the attractiveness and popularity of gold due to cultural aspects. $ 2 thoUSAnd. Prices strikes in the next decade. In Australia & New Zealand Banking Group estimate the probability of this event in 45%.


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