Futurist Ray Kurzweil forecasts for the next 25 years - VIDEO PDF Print E-mail
Wednesday, 04 February 2015 09:24

Bill Gates called Kurzweil's "best of the people I know at predicting the future of artificial intelligence." Kurzweil is also known by other forecasts that go beyond artificial intelligence.
Futurist and is currently CTO of Google, Kurzweil is the author of seven books (five of which have become bestsellers), the owner of twenty honorary doctorates and was awarded marks of distinction from three US presidents.

He is also the inventor of many technologies, starting with the first CCD flatbed scanner and ending with the first reading machine for the blind. He is also the co-founder of Singularity University and works with Larry Page on the development of artificial intelligence to Google.

In short, Ray Kurzweil is quite clever and his predictions are quite interesting. He constantly reminds us that we live in the most exciting time in the history of mankind. Let's go through some predictions Kurzweil, who fulfilled.

Kurzweil predictions over the past 25 years

In 1990 (25 years ago), he predicted ...

... That the computer will win the World Chess Champion in 1998. In 1997, Deep Blue (IBM) defeated Garry Kasparov.

... That personal computers will be able to answer questions, having wireless access to information on the Internet in 2010. As you can see, he was right.

... That in the early 2000s exoskeletons allow disabled people to walk. Companies like Ekso Bionics and other developing technologies (and have already developed), that does just that and more.

In 1999, he predicted ...

... That people will be able to give your computer a voice command in 2009. While in 2009 natural language interfaces like Siri and Google Now just beginning its long journey, it is likely that very soon we will get rid of all keyboards.

... That computer displays will be embedded in the glasses, creating augmented reality, in 2009. In laboratories and the forces of scientists such displays were created long before 2009, but Google began experimenting with prototypes of Google Glass in 2011.

Now we are seeing an explosion in the field of augmented and virtual reality. Microsoft has just introduced HoloLens, and Magic Leap working on his very interesting technology - not to mention the rest.

In 2005, he predicted ...

... That by 2010, the virtual solutions allow for language translations in real time, when the words in a foreign language will be translated into text in another language. It should say that Microsoft (Skype Translate), Google (Translate) and others have already implemented it. Individual applications like Word Lens can translate all the words on the pictures on your camera.

Kurzweil's predictions for the next 25 years

The above - only few projections. Although he could be wrong in the details, up to a year, his track record looks impressive. But there are others that may seem interesting entrepreneurs, for example. Some can make money on them. Other business - affect directly.

"By the end of 2020 points will project images directly onto the retina. Ten terabytes of computing power (about as much as in the human brain) will cost $ 1,000.

By the 2020s most of the diseases will disappear, as will become more intelligent nanobots current medical technology. Normal human food can be replaced nanosystems. Turing Test will be held constantly. Self-governing cars flood the roads, people banned from driving on motorways alone.

By 2030 th year of virtual reality will be 100% real feels. We will be able to upload your own brain / mind by the end of this decade.

By the 2040s non-biological intelligence will be a billion times more capable than the biological (ie, our). Nanotechnology will be able to create food and any objects of the physical world is literally out of thin air.

By 2045 we will be able to multiply your intelligence a billion times, linking the bark of our hemispheres wirelessly with artificial neocortex in the cloud. "

It is necessary to make an important point. It's not about predictions. The fact that they represent. Kurzweil's predictions - side process it (and our in principle) understanding of Moore's law, the law of increasing returns and exponential technologies.

These technologies are followed by an exponential curve based on the principle that computing power doubles every two years. We humans tend to think linearly. Employers are obliged to think exponentially.

Most of us do not understand the predictions of futurists, because in the early stages of exponential technologies they mislead us. First of all, we see them as destructive - just look at the massive companies that were destroyed by technological advances in the field of artificial intelligence, virtual reality, robotics, the Internet, mobile phones and so on. But each of these technologies goes way demonetization and democratization of access to products, and this path is not linear - it is exponential (think of Moore's Law).

Today, these same technologies are the basis of multi-billion dollar companies and affect the lives of billions of people.



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