Silk choker for Russia

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Silk choker for Russia

Сообщение DARPA » 16 янв 2016, 14:09

Strongly I do not believe in any concept that China is aimed at confrontation with the United States. China (mid-1990s) made a bid for the US-centered growth into the global economic system.

And in order to have "extended" access, many sacrificed. For example, the concept of "China World": project expansion in Asia relying on "Huaqiao", ie Chinese communities in other countries. On it, the concept of "China World" in the early 1990s did not say just lazy. Especially in the US, where the interests of the concept beat heavily and painfully.

Perhaps, of course, "Chinese world" was conceived as a "puzhalka" and successfully been exchanged for real economic dividends. But it is clear that China has given a lot, but got too much. And most importantly, it creates a vector in which at all costs is 20 years.

And there are no signs that China began to doubt in this vector, no. The generation of Chinese politicians and technocrats has grown, having before our eyes is the vector. Another question is that after 20 years of Chinese podnakopiv forces began to doubt, not a bad bargain they then, in the mid-1990s.

In any case, the current US-China "float" - is a dispute about the place of China in the US-centered global economic system, rather than the creation of China its global economic system.

Well, that's my basic position, and now, in fact, the "Silk Road".

1. Concept of the "Silk Road" (WB) for more than 25 years. For the first time it sounded Chinese in the late 1980s and in the mid-1990s, it was The cutting theme.

Again, I say we just forgot what they said about the WB. And for good reason. Silk called "noose" that the US and China seek to put on Russia and strangle its desire for independence logistics. Directly and wrote: "silk noose" Silk Road ".

And we wrote patriots are now choking with delight, speaking of the partnership with China. They wrote, by the way, right about something ... stranglehold. Because WS (sometimes add "great", but I'll manage "without aspiration") is indeed a direct alternative to the major trans-logistic corridors.

Why not implement a project in the 1990s? The reasons are many - resources were thrown at the elimination of technological backwardness (compare Chinese "mobile telephones" the then and current - once it becomes clear that the money is spent), began LP instability in Central Asia, the war in Afghanistan, "the Great Serdar" swung American direction, etc. In short, "not sklalos."

2. conceptual and historical SHP - the exact opposite of the Trans-Siberian. Transsiberian - it's just a different model, a different world. For the Chinese, it is important to create a corridor for the delivery of goods from point "A" to point "B", that is, in Europe, which for the Chinese is becoming the most important market.

The economic development of countries in the region to the Chinese "damn." In fact, the ancient Silk (he has little in common with a modern, but also revealing ....) It was just a caravan route and the accompanying transport infrastructure. Proceeds from the "path" coming to a narrow stratum of the local nobility, led to the degradation of the local economy. It was a kind of "petrodollars" that time.

3. Trans-Siberian Railway - is another matter. This was the impetus for the development of industry in the region and social recovery. The modern version of "Transsiberian 2.0" - corridor "North - South" Russia is developing on the same principle: the route through Iran starts to grow all sorts of beautiful industrial projects and facilities that are more important than the actual transport corridor.

And it is much more interesting in terms of the development of our economy than slezanie with "needle" oil pipe on the "needle" of the Chinese transit. For Russia, it's just gone.

4. In general, the meaning of the Chinese strategy of development of SHP - minimizing the involvement of "local" in the service corridors. The role should be limited to the local production of "Rent" and can do without it, the more that cut spending Chinese are very able.

All the latest Chinese "float" in Central Asia and Russia - is a dispute over the ownership of the infrastructure. Actually, this is the whole problem with the "Power of Siberia", the realization of which I have seen and is seen in a big fog.

During the "butting" with the Chinese could be solidly invest in the development of gas processing. But, of course, the boss knows best.

5. It is interesting that the Chinese historically have no experience of this kind of service corridors. SHP in ancient times served not Chinese, not Chinese. They were called "radhanite." Look about them - you learn a lot of interesting.

Advertised now "southern" (sea) route is also served by AMR are not Chinese. They were too big to swim somewhere - all of them were to sail. It was Arab merchants too vague Arabian origin.

I would have called them "sea radhanite", given the history of the region and ethnicity tribes inhabiting it. There's an interesting story that including He explains the "Venice" and "Genoa", and the prosperity of Britain in the late 18th - early 19th century as a minimum (at a time when the Chinese are mainly opium smoking).

6. Now there are six or seven options Silk Route. Through Russia comes almost two. Trans-Siberian and Arctic (SMP). Another part passes through Russia.

Only the first two real and constantly function reference in terms of profitability and the insurance cost of transportation of goods. Everything else - the attempts of testing and probing the degree of organizational complexity of the route.

Of course, you can create and work, but make them the basic .... stupid. But they are important to the Chinese as a back-up lanes and an instrument of pressure on us.

But in general, the largest Russian logistic achievement, I believe that we were able to SHP of "silk noose" turned into a real source of income. And tied to a relatively long time (if, to put it mildly, not brilliant, the outdated infrastructure) a significant part of Chinese exports to itself.

But we must understand that the Chinese never put all the "eggs" (his) into one "basket" (our). And strive for this is not necessary. But the Chinese bluff, which, by the way, has recently become a bit much, that here they have done something, then there is no response.

You just have to understand that our friendship with China, which is not friendship at all, and competition (especially for influence in Central Asia and the Caspian region), Chinese traffic - it is certainly important, but not the only, and probably not the main thing.

And the fact that in the Caspian region and in the area of ​​the corridor "North-South" our interests are antagonistic to the Chinese, we can understand the Chinese are working on options for logical corridors through Pakistan, bypassing Iran, well, we itself. But here we have a very good options for diplomatic, political and power games.

7. The Chinese surprised (that is, in the Chinese system of values ​​"very upset"), that Russia is not merged two years of sanctions. And even sizable demonstrates the ability to maneuver.

Believe me, the Chinese have no doubt that we will break down and crawled to them, we were not. And talk with us in the summer of 2014 was a barely concealed grin. Now they are nervous and almost hysteria.

Last impact on the results of Medvedev's visit is translated into the Russian language is very simple: "Well, when you come crawling to us ....". No more, and no less.

This emotional surge really is very important. He says that we are on the right track. In view of the imminent large internal "zamyatni" in China (see: the defeat of the "Shanghai group" and competition "Komsomol") survive, we need not so much. I would say, a year. Well, maybe 14-15 months.

And then, especially if economic growth denote, at least the minimum (formal parameters for the Chinese are very important - they are people formal essence of little interest, especially from the "barbarians from behind the wall"), then we will talk quite different.

Only for him, too, must be ready. Including in terms of set up "rainy day" infrastructure.

8. The problem is that the whole concept seems to me SHP already questionable. Because AMR is in Europe. And nowhere else. But will Europe in ten years, when all six or seven channels will be created, the "market paradise", to whom she was when the corridor was conceived, I doubt.

9. In the 1990s, one of the options for passing WB (and, incidentally, very interesting) was the road where there is a very valuable material container handling.

So, the central portion thereof was a corridor through Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey, with the outputs of Istanbul, Samsun and Trabzon, and from there by ferry to the logistics terminal in Varna, which was built in Soviet times (in conjunction with Iyichevck), as well as ... .

Correct: to Odessa. As you remember, Odessa figures and other Chinese projects, alternative corridors SHP. Now google about Chinese investors in the port of Odessa under Yanukovich, and - here's the surprise - when Turchinov.

And understand what the Mishiko there. That's right: it is our wonderful American partners hands "shibzdika" (from which "a demand", right?) Put even more remarkable to our Chinese partners "Cork".

Actually, the plans for the placement of a minimum of naval forces in the Crimea were from the same "Opera." And they, as is now clear, were exactly. In general, Americans are not asleep, and they are not suckers. They're just confused about the commitments and in a hurry.

10. And the last "zarubochka memory." The route of the road in the first surge of interest in the WB in 1990 should by a strange coincidence largely lie exactly where LIH (or Erdogan?) Carries now the oil left.

And the question arises: is it only in the oil business? I do not run in the hallway for more interesting things in the future? And is not that why Beijing is so behaved hypocritically, when the Turks have brought down the plane? And then I recall that Saudi Arabia - it's not just an American ally.

It is also the closest Chinese partner, which Beijing at least twice delivered medium-range missiles (1987 and 2007), and the total number to 120 units supposedly (I think that the real pieces 30 working rockets from the Saudis have) with a range of over 3000 km.

"Calibre" mean? Take a compass, colleagues .... Actually, this item could be put first. And nothing more to write. I am wrong?

Sight. Dmitry Evstafiev, political scientist
DARPA
 
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