Ruble's exchange rate

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As you know, all the currencies of the world the last 2 years weakened the dollar, the ruble weakened but not only the dollar but all currencies, except ... the hryvnia and the Venezuelan bolivar! In the business! ))
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The chart (opens in new window) comparison of the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate in 2 years it is clear that the collapse of the ruble is a comprehensive and all-consuming. It's not just a problem with the dollar and the euro, it is a problem wherever possible. The ruble crashed to the commodity currencies of Canada, Australia and Chile (prices for metals, coal is updated at least 10-15 years), but the fall in oil and gas currencies (all OPEC countries, Colombia, Norway, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan). Yet Kazakhstan overtook Russia in the rate of devaluation.

In contrast to developed countries, such as Japan, Russian ruble collapse automatically affects inflation. Prices in Japan are neutral enough to changes in the yen, which is caused by the structure of the consumer and corporate demand. If Japanese people following the devaluation did not have enough money for equipment Samsung, LG, or car Ford, BMW, they are transplanted to Sony, Panasonic and Suzuki, Toyota, and foreign companies are changing the machinery for national, not of inferior quality. In Russia, due to the lack of substitute products of comparable quality, the devaluation of the national currency, directly or indirectly translates all consumer and industrial inflation. Right, when it becomes more expensive to import value close to the devaluation of the (now 1.7-2.6 times on most imported products) and indirectly, is when domestic producers with significant dependence on foreign parts and components have to shift the increase in production costs in the final price.

Reasonable and properly organized devaluation can, and should positively impact on national business, again, as in Japan. Previously cited trends in the corporate sector of Japan. The weakening of the yen helped export-oriented Japanese companies to significantly improve financial performance.

The ruble exchange rate in 15 years. Less - means a drop in the ruble against the national currency of the country selected for the given period. Data as of January 12, 2016. For example, October 12, 2015 the ruble fell by 17.6% against the dollar (the United States), but increased by 21.8% in Argentina. Red color of the country, with significant (over 35%) of the weight of oil and gas exports.
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The dollar exchange rate.
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In Russia, all the way around. Typically, when the devaluation of the disproportionately rising costs of doing business. In Japan, they also grow them under 55% of imports - is the raw material, but raw material in the structure of the final cost of products is quite negligible. Japan high-tech developed country, where production with a very high added value, high value added. The share of raw materials in the final cost of the goods in Japan are different, but rarely exceed 3-5%. Even if the yen drops twice the effect on the final price will be about 2-3%. In view of the rest product has about 3%. In Russia, the rate of foreign products is high and for every 10% devaluation of the potential for an upward price is about 2% from the standpoint of Russian business. Those. Ruble drop twice lead to the accumulated effect of the inflation of 20%, which is 4 times higher than in Japan.

But that is not all. Japanese business can be funded under the rates close to zero, with a range of financial instruments - from money market to stocks and bonds, hedging risks through derivatives. Devaluation theoretically increases the investment potential of the Japanese economy, as Japanese goods become competitive on the world market, and the additional demand for cost-effective deployment of production capacity in the conditions of zero interest rates and increased financial limits.

In Russia we have nothing. CBR has blocked the possibility for investment, making money is critical expensive, inaccessible and short. Banks in Russia now (in 2015) almost no commercial loans for a period longer than 3 years, except for approximate patterns. Limits on all closed, even refinancing difficult, not that take a new loan, and if you give, then who needs a loan of 18-25%? Business in Russia do not have the margins to service the debt at the rate of 18-25% for SMEs.

Also, the devaluation of the national currency has a positive effect on the current account (balance of payments), drowning imports (they did) + increases the investment attractiveness of the country for direct investment in the first place (until about us) by reducing domestic labor costs, transportation, logistics, rent. When foreign companies to open production becomes profitable in the country, where the strong devaluation. Perhaps the only positive thing in Russia.

But while devaluation in Russia did not lead to anything good. There is no domestic investment / growth in production, there is no foreign investment (for obvious reasons), no improvement of competitiveness of Russian goods, as financial and economic circumstances and blocked capital markets for Russian companies to implement prevent devaluation features. In Russia, the devaluation led to record inflation since 2001, a record since 1998. The collapse of incomes and expenditures, the most powerful crisis in the last 15 years. Everything was done very foolishly. All over. From start to finish. As always.

Mediocrity financial and economic management has meant that the ruble has a reputation of shit dirt, which try to get rid of as soon as possible.

Companies in Russia are up to 50% of deposits in foreign currency, and the population to 30%. By 2013 the share of deposits in foreign currency increased.
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Levels of engagement in foreign currency to a record close. It would seem that in terms of sanctions and all this geopolitical fuss should be de-dollarization of the economy, but exactly the opposite. CBR their frankly idiotic decisions undermines confidence in the ruble, and for many years.

All failed. We make the ruble the weakest currency in the world, except for the hryvnia and blocked a magical investment potential, which could be (but did not appear) in the path of import substitution. Try to open a business at the rate of 18-25% and see if you have to stay.

They also say that the ruble he flies into the abyss. Well, the savages in Nigeria, Algeria, Angola, such as hold a course, and our specialists can not, right? If about Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar is uncertain, there is under the patronage fin.sistema partially, by the US, but why Nigeria, with a much greater dependence on oil, do not have a problem with capital flight and Russia, rising from its knees, has?

The ruble is now impossible to assess in any way, because it does not depend on standard financial and economic models. There is more involved, and the idiocy of monetary policy authorities. Therefore, it can be anything you want.

The most worthless of all this is that Russia could be better than Japan. The country has incredible potential, as evidenced by achievements in space and defense industry, nuclear power. All of this is a high-tech, even more. Neither Nigeria nor Saudi Arabia will never create anything like it. But a series of system errors in the financial and economic policy, overt sabotage and somewhat anti-people and uneconomic activities you know anyone (well, not just the same as the capital of the country were taken in an unknown direction 20 years) leads to the fact that on a number of financial and economic indicators we go down to the worst representatives of Africa, while we can be at the level of the best.