The strategic implications of the war in Syria

[DARPA]

Having made the decision to go to war in Syria, Putin once again forced to talk with Western leaders and Russian distracted attention from his jacket slowly dotlevayuschego Donbass.

The tactical task is completed. The question is, what are the strategic consequences for Russia of the war?

To evaluate them, I think we should keep in mind four points.

First. In today's world, greatness is not determined by the size of the army. Greatness is determined by the size of the economy. The US is a superpower, not because send troops somewhere. They are a superpower because they produce 25% of world GDP. China in the past 20 years has become a superpower, not because he won the Korea, Vietnam and Cambodia. He did not catch them. He became a superpower because it has created an ultra-modern economy and lifted out of poverty 400 million people.

Second. What can Russia do to get into this war? I am not talking about the moral side of things, but all reasonable wars are fought for a very specific benefit. Alexander fought with the Persians and built on their lands Greek kingdom. Peter I fought with Sweden and obtained access to the Baltic Sea. Japan in World War II occupation of Southeast Asia, because the needed raw material sources. The Middle East is a zone of vital interests of the United States, because the United States get out of oil.

Question: what conceivable strategic benefits can bring Russian victory in Syria?

We have not received any piece of Syrian territory (which is the gift of no use to anybody except LIH [terrorist organization banned in Russia]), and a scrap of Syrian (non-existent and unnecessary to us) natural resources. Is it logical to consider a benefit prestige that Russia supposedly will be in the Middle East?

USSR drank this naduvalova fully. The Soviet Union was also a big fan of Middle Eastern dictators to help, providing them with money, weapons and military advisors. None of these dictators did not miss the opportunity to throw the USSR. For any of their money, weapons and advisers from the Soviet Union were just a way to fill his worth in the eyes of the United States.

The USSR was the Loch, which was diluted to the grandmother and the blood of small dictators. Does the Kremlin to repeat this way?

Third, and most importantly. What is happening in Syria - this intra-civilization conflict. Perhaps Assad and LIH - are two sides of the Islamic coin. Both modes want to build heaven on earth, but Assad believes that the paradise on earth - when his troops shot 30 thousand. Residents of Hama (as in 1982 when his father), and LIH that paradise on earth - when his troops shot 30 thousand. residents of the same Hama.

Is there any sense of the Russian Christian civilization to interfere in the conflict vnutriislamsky as cannon fodder? This is not our land, not our war, not our territory and our rules.

Finally, the fourth. PR war is different from the real war that it does not lead to victory. Its lead for good pictures.

The ultimate goal of this war is not a picture, and the victory. Lies in the present war is very expensive. In this war, you can - and should - lie only enemy. And when you start to lie to ourselves, how great said on this occasion, Admiral Yamamoto, "I think that the war is already lost."

With a victory in this war? The answer - the destruction of LIH. The question is - is it possible to win LIH to those which chose the Kremlin? To date, Moscow wants to limit air strikes, which will be applied to the base in Latakia. All armored vehicles, which is unloaded in Syria - is armored to protect this base. Ground offensive will be carried out, ideally, Syrian and Iranian troops. On this occasion, just remember the famous dictum of General Napoleon, who was very happy because I always had to deal only with the coalition.

How much more successful would be a coalition of four of these great states, like Syria, Iraq, Iran and Russia?

Most likely, the air strikes as part of a coalition to destroy the LIH would be impossible, and this brings us back to the original problem. If Moscow does not destroy the LIH, it will be in a weak position, as well as Washington. What a difference? Neither have not destroyed nor those.

In addition, this real war, there is also a public relations component, calculated as always in the case of this war in the first place on the enemy.

Islamists, including LIH play in this war much longer and more successful than the Kremlin. They know all the ins and Photoshop, and about the scandals of Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib seem about kindergarten compared to that in a month the Western TV will talk about the Russian military intervention in Syria ...

We get involved in a war in which even theoretically, we can not win. We get involved in the conflict vnutriislamsky, and we get involved in it in the coalition, whose members are: a) not be able to crush the LIH, b) are for the representatives of the Russian far more alien civilization, religion and culture than the West. Everything else compared to this - stuff.