Yemen charade. Controlled chaos theory in action

[DARPA]

At first glance, what is happening in Yemen is quite simple. Some rebels are dissatisfied with the authorities and corrupt regime staged a revolt with an armed uprising and the seizure of the country. Former head of state in hiding abroad and asked for foreign aid in the elimination of rebellion. A request for assistance immediately responded largest and most well-armed neighbor Yemen - Saudi Arabia (KSA), proved capable in a matter of days to put together an impressive coalition of other neighbors of the affected State. Apparently the breadth of the coalition and a common understanding of all its members the situation in Yemen was to demonstrate to the world community on whose side not only strength, but true. The coalition was immediately supported by the United States.

That's all. It remains to add that the rebels are Shi'a Islam, and all the Sunni coalition that gives the confrontation of some religious connotation.

I am not in any, even the smallest least I can not classify themselves as connoisseurs of the Middle East or the Arab world. But I have eyes that can see and read the texts, have ears that can hear. And all that I see and hear, tells me that it seems simple at first glance. And it is not in the Bab el-Mandeb, the control of which actually means control over all traffic from Asia to Europe and transportation of oil from the Middle East in the same Europe and America. Certainly an important factor, even geopolitical, but not the most important at the moment. Whether it is otherwise not only the United States would not have approved the Saudi coalition, and immediately headed to her.

Instead, the US behave at least strange.
No activity and the ability to evacuate US citizens from Yemen, pleading only that all have long warned.

Pretty cool meet all initiatives KSA with requests to supply additional weapons.

Quite unexpectedly negotiate with Iran on its nuclear program and the lifting of sanctions. So far, only preliminary, but important fact to reach agreements. And this despite the fact that Iran is the natural and most important opponent of the CSA in the Middle East. In addition, Iran Shiite state, while the war in Yemen if you wish, you can apply as a war against the Shia Sunni insurgents that provokes Iranian assistance to Yemeni rebels-Huthis.

The picture would not be complete if you do not remember the Breastfed US (largely through the KSA and Qatar) to overthrow Assad in Syria LIH terrorist organization with which the United States seems like even fights, but also regularly provides arms and food, and at the same time buying all controlled LIH excess oil.

In this case, before consideration of events, seem to me the most likely and plausible, I will mention that of all the major world players (in this context, the State or public entities claiming independent geopolitical position) the US is the only one who is not interested or may not be interested in the long-term stability in the Middle East. There are two reasons. US maximum of all removed from the scene of action, and therefore none of that can happen on BV, will have on the US direct negative impact. Destabilization and chaos in the BV objectively adversely affect the position of other global players. Europe (and China), this means a violation of a stable supply of oil from the region. For Russia, uncontrolled armed groups on the southern borders of the country.

But that's not all. US objectively interested in large-scale conflict in the BV has a number of reasons.

Firstly, the relationship with the CSA in the US recently far from ideal. Fulfilling the US for decades the role of Cerberus in the region KSA, somewhat overestimated his importance and allows himself to act in relation to the US is not a request, as required. By themselves, the requirements are not too critical and might well be satisfied, but the fact of their revealing. If they are satisfied, the United States will show the world their weakness and inability to solve problems from a position of strength. Especially, it will be after they have had to make concessions to Iran. And everything that happens in the Ukraine recalls lately to reverse, a public limited verbal support for the regime or close to it by sending three hundred military trainers. Demonstrate compliance also with respect to the CSA would be reckless act.

Secondly, KSA, oddly refer to this regime politically, has played in a complicated region stabilizing role. That more and more begins to diverge from strategic plans to build on the basis of LIH future Caliphate. The principal difference between them is that the Caliphate initially planned area of ​​global chaos that all relationships will try to resolve a position of strength. A sort of battering ram for the demolition of all the islands of order in the region. The term of his own life, no one cares. Will make that time to, most importantly leave behind a solid ruin. And in this regard, while the CSA has real power and influence, in LIH very little chance of fulfillment of their role. Not accidentally LIH has already announced plans to seize Mecca and Medina. For this KSA must first be attenuated inside.

Third, the United States in recent years is extremely difficult are the relations with Israel. The reason is quite simple. The United States was not enough money on the financial support of Israel. And without that Israel is not too viable. But just take and take the blame for the death of Israel's US does not want. Much nicer for them to be, if the Jewish state will be lost in battles with the eternal enemies - the Arabs. So far it is hard to believe, too much of a difference in military power. Especially because all these decades guaranteed the inviolability of Israel also by the CSA. Funny, but according to one version itself Saudi dynasty has their ancestor Jew. But what if the Saudi authorities will fall? We must understand that an enormous difference in human resources, as well as a complete disregard for death, cultivated in LIH and several other radical Muslim organizations can easily negate Israel's military advantage. Even nuclear weapons in this case is not a panacea.

Fourth, the destruction of infrastructure, and especially oil, drastically changes the whole geopolitical situation in the world. United States, have accumulated huge reserves of oil, and is already a developed system of shale oil production suddenly transformed from an importer in the world's largest oil producer, in terms of artificially generated deficit in oil solves a bunch of geopolitical and economic problems. Dollar of unsecured debt and burdened with exorbitant candy wrappers becomes tangible collateral currency. Europe, Middle East oil has lost, automatically enters the colonial dependence on the United States. China, for the same reasons, is facing a severe economic crisis. That is just good regional dust- and shaky status quo quickly and easily restored. Any Fronde crushed in the bud.

Fifth, today Middle Eastern regimes of the Arabian Peninsula are among the largest US lenders. And first of all it concerns the CSA. In the case of the destruction of the state debts, no one will claim.

In this regard, the most probable development of the situation on the American plan is as follows. KSA is increasingly drawn into the war in Yemen, but with the sentiment in it and the terrain to gain a fast and overwhelming victory can not. Ground operation will actually be carried out only by the forces of the Saudi army. Egypt, which is calculated on the part of CSA has in fact made it clear that participation in their ground forces not interested. As a result, after some time on the territory of the CSA start Shiite uprising, actively supported on all sides (Iran, LIH, Yemen). As soon as power is weakened subsequent attacks in an attempt to LIH subjugation of the entire Arabian Peninsula. Iran at this point should also be actively involved in the game that will cause it to weaken and confrontation with the same LIH in Iraq and on the western borders of Iran. Since it is always easier to destroy and easier than creating, and almost all modes of the Middle East are far from humanity, the protest potential domestic savings should be enough to create chaos on the Arabian Peninsula. At some point, including the popular slogan "Kill the Jews" and all this protest will result in a disorderly, but massive war against Israel.

In this context, a very curious looks Russia's decision to unblock the supply of S-300 to Iran. I would venture to suggest that this is not easy, not in spite, but by direct agreement with the United States. All the negative public rhetoric on this issue is ridiculous and clearly to the public. The fact that the United States in a situation with Israel and Iran, there is one problem. Israel has been pushing the US to the joint military operation against Iran, which sees for itself a major threat. If Syria fell in those terms, which set aside the plan, then the transaction would long ago have become a reality. The problem is that Syria has the ability to control the rise and direction on Iran Israeli air combat (like the American zone of the Mediterranean and Turkey). This makes surgery too risky. Supply S-300 to Iran actually puts on these plans cross. That is completely frees the US from any obligation to participate in it under the pretext of a fine. After all, it is capable of holding disrupt already own American plans for randomization BV.

Iran is well aware of what role it is prepared. In general, he is now in quite an attractive position. Years of sustained pressure of sanctions. Today on virtually no leverage. Supply S-300 would make it almost invulnerable. US demand is forcing them to compromise and take sanctions. Future havoc on BW and a sharp rise in oil prices will only increase Iran's importance as a supplier and its revenues. But this does not mean that Iran would meekly perform the role that he took American strategists. The most obvious and ideal for Iran is following tactics. Support Yemeni rebels with arms and ammunition, as well as preventive military action against the LIH in Iraq in accordance with its authorities. As a result, the CSA can survive the impending catastrophe, but in any case in a very weakened state. Thus, Iran will automatically become a major political and military force in the region. And the emerging alliance of Turkey-Russia-Iran that only contribute.