Inflation: clothes Strike Back

[DARPA]

The annual change in the consumer price index (CPI), contrary to many expectations, in March continued to grow, despite the diminished contribution to inflation "favorite" price racing past 2 months - fruits and vegetables, including potatoes, and stabilizing contribution to her other food and beverages. Leadership contribution to the current inflation (month to month ces. Corr.) Intercepted a non-food products, which gave 45% of the total increase in prices. In recent months, despite the New Year hype and subsequent transfer prices have grown exchange rates (ERPT), the contribution of non-food inflation was limited to the current 1/3, while food and beverages in January and February gave more than half.

In turn, a third of the additional contribution of non-food items in the annual inflation came from clothing and footwear (according to VTB Capital). Clothing poorly used to hedge currency risk during panic consumption boom at the end of last year. This has led to the accumulation of reserves and a longer than usual period of seasonal discounts. But the observed surge "deferred inflation" is unlikely to change the overall trend of slowing growth in the annual CPI expected to consensus in the coming months (up to 11-13% by the end of the year, in the absence of unidirectional changes in prices of oil).

Despite a slight decrease in March, the contribution of food to the annual change in the CPI remained the most significant (1.5 per cent. Point for fruits and vegetables, 7.0 percent. Point for the rest of the food and alcohol from the 16.9% increase in the CPI for the year). According to the VTB Capital, in March remained contribution to the annual change in the CPI two waves grocery embargo (ban in late January, the import of pork from EC and grocery counter-sanctions in early August) at a rate of about 3.5 percent. points. In other words, about 40% more expensive food for a year, "donated" his people, the Russian government, the remaining 60% comes from the correction of the exchange rate and monetary policy.