09/08/14 Analysis of the political scientist MV Litvinova

[DARPA]

Ilovajsk as a mirror of tactical possibilities
Ilovajsk began to appear in the reports of fighting on the territory of the DNI more on 12 July. It was then, in the area of the city occupied by the militia, began a first battles. The value of this city for the defense of Donetsk can be compared with the value for the defense Nikolayevka Sloviansk or gravelly, for the defense of Lugansk. Occupation of this settlement punishers - marked the beginning of the blockade near the city. This is not surprising, since the control of the city allowed punitive fairly easy to intercept the road near Harcizskoye or Zugres without getting themselves in these cities, as well as had been done between the Slavic and Kramators'k.
However, the command of a punitive body, faced with stiff resistance in the city and being poor talent long-term focus and aggressively implement one particular offensive task periodically lost interest in Ilovaiskaya. It regularly trying to find a weak spot of the militia, then the Shahteskom, then the red light, then Snow. As a result, and the garrison Ilovaysk managed to participate in the penetration of the corridor to the CAT Marinovka and sweep Miusinska.
Another escalation of the situation in the area Ilovaysk began on 10 August, when the assault battalions of the group of special Interior Ministry and volunteer battalions NSU tried to show the APU, how to take the city. It should be noted that the army leadership punishers was aware of these possibilities, so to speak groups, but did not have a choice. At this point, the basis of infantry MAT - highly mobile assault troops and shelves for special purposes (as in the Ukraine, they do not differ much in terms of real training, what is called special forces in Russia in Ukraine is only 10 Detachment GUR, he's in the / h A2245) suffered irreparable losses. Were routed to a state of inability to conduct offensive operations all three battalions of the 25th brigade and three battalions of the 79th Brigade were generally removed for restoration. Bogged down in the fighting near Lugansk 80 brigade and battalions of the 95th Brigade fought in the Red Ray and tried to break through to Zugres Harcizskoye and from the north through the Lower Jug and Kirov. Command APU has itself been forced to enter directly into the line of battle own territorial defense battalions, which differed little in quality and preparation of the Interior Ministry forces.
Actually, it should be noted that the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the personnel of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and special battalions of volunteer units NSU felt about his own combat capability of a number of illusions, which the subsequent fighting dispelled. First of all, it was believed that due to the voluntary status of these formations will be on motivation and morale equivalent militia. Strictly in terms of hard seats in the settlements under sporadic artillery and mortar shelling of low-intensity volunteer corps forming punitive indeed equivalent militia. But the militia and his command, realizing low efficiency units can only to it, making huge efforts in terms of mastery of the personnel of the heavy infantry weapon. In spetsbatalona MIA such training is simply not conducted. And really, why patrol battalion or ersatz replacement "Berkut" grenade or God forbid, a portable missile launcher. Volunteer battalions NSU got the initial training, which is completely leveled almost complete absence in their lineup of professional conduct in ground combat operations of the military. Naturally, the relatively complex types of warfare, such as a combination of actions DRG and heavy artillery fire strikes the funds which are the most effective part of the tactics Republicans Donbass were volunteer formations punitive unavailable. Available, both because of untrained personnel and administration, and because of the lack of vulgar heavy firepower in the Interior Ministry. We should also note the complete absence in the volunteer units of forces and means of combat support, in principle, preclude the successful conduct of not only offensive action, but even the defense for short-term interruption of communications.
Naturally, all these fine qualities of volunteer militias of Ukraine led to a loud and rapid failure of the highly publicized assault Ilovaysk August 10. Clearly demonstrating that between motivation to kill dissent from his point of view and motivation to acquire military affairs properly is a huge distance that jumps can not be overcome. Who participated in the fighting in this area of the 2nd and 40th battalions of territorial defense showed the same limited combat capabilities. Those who persisted in their errors, were killed or wounded.
Nevertheless, the command of punitive in this direction was clearly applies to commemorate "Independence Day" a resounding success, according to the type of Slavic. And close the path to the Russian humanitarian convoy if he suddenly failing to break in Lugansk, Donetsk decides to visit. Therefore, the number of building volunteer units continued. Formation idea of such actions was twofold. Since firepower militia rather limited, if catch up on a lot of urban development of the armed people, they just do not have time to kill all before they get to the key point. The second idea was a little more constructive and consisted in the fact that after a regular part of the APU took one or another town around Ilovaysk or any object in the city, there was an urgent need to push through to more punitive - volunteers to play the heroic seat Karachun in miniature. However, such tactics are required and which has its own regular army tanks and artillery, and who are familiar with them somehow interact. The basis of the grouping punitive in this direction were battalion tactical group of the 28 th and 51 th Ombre and artillery battalions from the 55th OABR and 27th OReAP. In the development of the offensive in the area command punitive contracts all the things that could, until consolidated mouth Ombre 93rd and 17th TRUNC and even 73rd Center Special Purpose Navy. As a result, by the end of August 16 Ilovajsk was completely surrounded and all the surrounding towns were busy crowds of volunteers. For this purpose we used 7 spetsbatalona MIA: "Ivano-Frankivsk", "Azov", "Dnepr-1", "Mining", "Kherson", "Svitiaz" and "Peacemaker", 3rd Reserve Battalion NSU "Donbass" and 40th battalion of territorial defense "Kryvbas" total staff strength of up to 3,000 soldiers to interact with two battalion tactical groups APU. The left flank of this group to Yelenovka covered the 2nd Battalion of the territorial defense and the 3rd Battalion of the 51st Ombre.
Rear Amvrosievsky groups in this area provided the 5th battalion of territorial defense units Nicholas Regiment NSU and border guards. In parallel with these developments advancing from the north to the Harcizsk and Zugress group managed to capture Zhdanovka APU. Militias at this point in Ilovaiskaya not exceed 500 people, however, followed the assault on August 18 again ended in failure - clear the militia of the city did not happen.
And on August 21 the situation in this area has changed dramatically. After the interrogation, was taken prisoner by the intelligence chief of the 8th Army Corps in the militia opened wide his eyes not only on the number of groups opposed to them in this area, but also at its disposition, the state of logistics and combat ability. Namely thawed extreme weakness of all these components of the group which was previously clear. However, during August 22-23, at the same time the concentration of forces for a counterattack, DRG militia checked the information, still can not believe her evidence. Nevertheless, hundreds of Ukrainian tanks and going beyond the horizon of other columns of armored vehicles have been identified. Basically were found only school buses. Before turning to a discussion of future events will focus on detection of a vital fact. Two weeks, five thousandth grouping punitive, involving no less than 100 field guns and mortars, and 70 armored vehicles could not crush and force them to complete the position left it ten times inferior in numbers squad Republicans.
It should be noted that this conclusion was reached, and in command of the punitive group. They managed to clear gain in a consolidated battalion tactical group 92nd Ombre, which popped up in the area of ​​ATO on 23 August. Consolidated it was because for its manning armored vehicles had in each battalion to form a consolidated company, for more resources battalion is not enough. But this ponastupat BTG did not have time - August 24 militia caused counterstrike, and BTG 92nd Ombre was defeated in the joint action of DRG and artillery DNR. It should be noted the following strengths of the armed forces of the DNI manifested in these battles. First of all, along with the impacts on the forehead under Yelenovka where fighting with the 3rd Battalion of the 51st Ombre lasted from August 24 to September 2 (10 days), and attacks were made on the weakest units of the 2nd Battalion of territorial defense, which simply fled. As a result, advancing from Mospino 22 kilometers, the armed forces of the DNI August 24 took Novokaterinovku, Klenovka, Osykino, Lenin and Construction. And thus cut Kuteynikova and Ilovajsk from Starobeshevo. Thus, the main group in the area of ​​punitive Ilovaysk was deprived of supplies.
Would like to mention that the armed forces of the DNI did not move his shock units on. Although theoretically encircle the enemy was not complete. He could be supplied through Amvrosievka, Novoivanovka, kumachovye and Victory. However, effective action at such a distance from the base to the DNR Mospino for units with a maximum battalion rear impossible with a little bit serious opposition from the enemy. Understanding this distinguishes Republicans from punitive, "became famous" 130-kilometer raids separate battalions, invariably ended their complete defeat at times inferior opponent. To lock the specified direction was another method. Once deployed in force DNR to take control of their own artillery near it in conjunction with the DRG secured contactless blocking cross-border route. What was particularly effective, due to the fact that in contrast to July, the Russian border was busy enough forces of the Russian army, and use Russian territory for maneuver punitive proved impossible. The situation in the Russian border will be reversed. Now the border routes were safe for the troops people's republics. And set up in advance in the area of supply chain nodes allowed to conduct operations in great depth.
However, in such a way the situation developed only where the republican forces applied to their counterattacks against the volunteer units of Ukraine, outside urban areas and at a limited depth. It is well set off tension in the area of ​​fighting Yelenovka, accompanied not only heavy losses on both sides, but the slow pace of promotion - hundreds of meters per day. Location Lugansk, Donetsk closely adjacent to and nearby town share have not been released on August 24, but only 25 numbers. Until Yelenovka same which is from these settlements is 5 kilometers, the DNI troops were still as much as 8 days. Until Pavlograd, located five kilometers from the outskirts of Donetsk, in the direction of east Yelenovskaya DNR fighters made ​​their way from 24 to 31 August. Also interesting is the fact that the punitive surrounded Ilovajsk able to unlock only on August 31 when they were released surrounding locations: Broad, Green, Kobzar, Grabski, Tretyakov, multi player, shut down all the roads in the city.
It took 8 days of fighting, the complex negotiations and a humanitarian corridor for punitive to solve this problem. All this illustrates the very limited firepower and numbers, which have the Republicans, especially when the offensive has to be carried in a housing estate. And as since the time of formation of the "boiler" in Deakovo punishers are increasingly resorting to the creation of defensive positions in urban areas, assault actions in the cities at the moment is difficult to attribute the strong points of the Republicans. These fights will be for them a very protracted and accompanied by significant losses. It is characteristic that in other areas the situation is developing similarly. So the battle for Novosvetlovku and gravelly lasted from 13 to 29 August (17 days). These settlements were abandoned as a result of the punitive no frontal attacks army LC and LC because the troops were able to capture the height of the mountain areas of the Gay and yellow, with which it became possible to adjust fire on the crossings and bridges across the river Seversky Donets. This in turn deprived Lutuginsky grouping punitive supplies and forced her to retreat. Characteristically, to clear the 12th Battalion of the Territorial Defence Metalist area located between the mountain and the Gay Yellow LC troops also failed. Punishers retreated, only cut off from supplies.
Thus, the tactical capabilities of the armed forces of the Republic of Donbass, although superior to that punitive, but do not allow to strategic offensive. They only give an opportunity to improve their positions, and to do it consistently, and not available on all operating directions simultaneously. Fighting for the liberation of the major cities are able to absorb all the available resources of the Republicans. At the same time punishers can constrain in the cities of the Republic forces for prolonged periods (weeks) existent rabble that will simply hide in a building, periodically postrelivaya of small arms. Declared a cease-fire should be no cheating. Unable to fight for power in modern Ukraine, not attacking the Republic of Donbass. Punitive or offensive resumed immediately after the ceasefire violation by either party, or after restoring the combat group them. I would like to think that the Republic will not repeat its Donbass June bugs and properly use a breather to address humanitarian concerns, regrouping and positions. None of the parties does not have sufficient forces to create a continuous front. Consequently, the success will be the one who has the initiative. And she does not possess the one who violated the ceasefire, and the one who makes better use of respite, to properly assess their strengths and abilities, as well as strength, capabilities and intentions of the enemy. The possibility that the cease-fire may never be broken military to consider the right not to have - in their view of the world such an option does not exist.