A detailed analysis of the military situation in the Donbas from military analyst

[DARPA]

In recent days, we are witnessing an epic unfolds and in its historic event. Ukrainian regular army battalions and punitive suffer a catastrophic defeat to the south of Donetsk. More recently, the republic is in dire straits, DNR and does hanging on a thin thread supply, which tried to cut in Miner and Red Ray was left tip of Saur-Graves, brought no decisive successes counteroffensive Bolotov. Many thought that the militia was pressed against the rope and is about to break in that will lead to the collapse of the New Russia and the military victory of the fascist junta. However, the militia could withstand the most severe blow which the junta has caused all available forces in the first half of August.
The junta has made ​​no secret of their purposes, that they are preparing the assaults Miner and Lugansk discussed openly. Degree triumphant reports on the background of the next breakthroughs mechanized zashkalivalPervy critical moment came when the soldiers of the 25th Airmobile Brigade and part natsigvardii broke in mining. DNR in those days was hanging by a thread, the junta approached almost close to a strategic victory. But the few forces that were fighting in the city and waited for reinforcements saved Novorossia of division into 2 parts. In subsequent battles junta breakthrough here was stopped, resulting in heavy casualties in men and material, the junta has suffered a defeat here.
The second critical moment came when the part Debalcevo through Faschevku was hit towards erupts from South Cauldron 24th Mechanized Brigade. It was an ambitious plan, when the enemy tried to cut Novorossia using as a strike group already seemed to be debited from the account of the. This is a joint impact on Miusinsk and Red Ray, caused a severe crisis in the New Russia - troops in the area was very small, which slipped through Miusinsk mechanized columns junta hardly defended, in the Red Ray of Cossacks left position. There is a real threat of dismemberment and death Novorossia groups in the Thorez-Snow-Saur-Graves. But then again, the courage of ordinary soldiers who have clung to Red Ray and Miusinsk allowed to wait for the approach of reserves with which had been cleared of the enemy and withheld Miusinsk Red Ray. Overcoming the crisis, the militia and are able to win a decisive battle had far-reaching consequences.
Since the attack on the Yasinovataya failed, breakthrough to the Top Pitcher and Zhdanovka with the aim of cutting Gorlovka was eliminated and to Yenakievo and failed to advance, then in the second half of August, the beginning of the offensive junta militia out of steam and gradually began to show offensive outburst.
Objectively, the situation demanded that the junta to stop the attack, regroup, bring up reserves, create a reserve of fuel and ammunition, and then go on the offensive by mounting new shock troops. Nevertheless, political reasons require a continued advance in the former group. Since the front of the LC as a whole has stabilized, and the South was defeated boiler, in the light to stop the offensive north of Donetsk, the junta despite the serious operational risk continued offensive in the south, trying to take in the forehead and Ilovajsk Mospino. And the stronger the junta to get involved in these fights, the more narrowed front of the offensive, which began in early August on a broad front, by the 20th, it actually boils down to a single point.
The end points of this attack were the southern slopes of the Saur-Graves, poluohvachennoe Mospino and southern suburbs Ilovaysk. In the last days of the offensive, it was reduced to a primitive bulk on Ilovajsk. In this case, on the southern flank mature threat that proved fatal. After graduating from Southern Boilers and repel the attack on Miusinsk and Red Ray, militia recaptured marinating (which is in July-August 2 times passed from hand to hand) and began to leak along the border to the checkpoint "Uspenka" covering Amvrosievsky group.
It's hard to say why the junta had not responded to this threat - perhaps felt that here only the activity of DRG, which is unpleasant, but has no operational value. Perhaps felt that manage to succeed under Ilovaiskaya and then fend off the threat from the south. As a result, the militias were able to save to the south-east of Amvrosiivka sufficient forces, which caused Cleave Communications main forces fighting under the junta related brandishing Mospino, Saur-Tomb. At the same time advancing towards the south parts followed kick mechanized group west of Mospino, who appeared for the junta completely unexpected, because until recently she'd tried to cover Mospino on both sides.
Exploration apparently blinked this attack, resulting in a relatively small militia forces seized the main communication largest grouping junta south of Donetsk, where were gathered the most capable of the storming Mospino, Saur-Tomb and Ilovajsk including 3 punitive battalion "Azov", "Shahtersk "and" Donetsk-1 "plus the different parts of the gain and various independent companies. Environment was more 5000 soldiers and about 180 units of various military equipment, as well as up to 90 pieces, mortars and multiple rocket launcher systems.
Ridiculous to compare, given the size, but the militia actually held a mini-operation on environment, similar to the Stalingrad cauldron - a classic hit on a converging path, Romanians and Italians of course on the flanks with the junta was not, but one side was just a hole, and on the other stood barriers are not designed for mechanized strike. As a result, in addition to the remnants of the boiler under Deakovo arose Amvrosievsky cauldron around which the militia began to create the encirclement, expanding the offensive to the south and south-west, occupying settlements deep in the rear of the southern group of the junta. At the same time, rapidly growing disorganization of command and control. Battalion "Azov" actually came out of the submission and drapanul large part of their forces to Mariupol, battalions "Donbass-1" and "Shahtersk" bogged down in urban combat for Ilovajsk and instead pulled out from the boiler began to demand from military tanks and artillery to continue the assault almost lost city.
Since the outside of the boiler were only rear unit without heavy equipment, militia immediately began to develop the offensive southwest of Amvrosiivka, exit to Starobeshevo that by the evening of August 26 were employed. While another 25 militiamen broke to Volnovaha. In fact, the loss of these items, at the junta will not be here even positions from which you can apply a deblocking kick. Surrounded by troops in fact turn out to be in the rear away from the new frontline, with a limited supply of fuel and ammunition.
And the new front for the junta is a huge hole, which is nothing close. Remnants of the junta, including the battalion escaped "Azov" hastily retreated to Mariupol, leaving virtually without a fight several settlements, bringing militias rolled directly into the suburbs Novoazovsk and the approaches to Mariupol. Front by the junta south Starobeshevo until Novoazovsk virtually none. Only a lack of strength in the militia slow growing catastrophe.
At the same time, the militia also develop offensive and west of Mospino on Ugledar, Yelenovka and Nikolsky. Here junta sufficiently small forces, so offensive develops in the militia, though not fast, but quite successfully. Under Yelenovka came another "mini-boiler", connectivity groups to keep the junta in Donetsk poluokruzhenii was irreparably broken.
Reserves to unlock surrounded and close the huge hole in the front, with the junta is no - now hastily withdraw troops from Perekopa bring to the front the territorial battalions questionable readiness announce the 4th mobilize and try to quickly enter the fray very very old technique with storage facilities to compensate for the huge losses in the material part.
In general, as long as it is not clear how the junta can avoid total defeat here. Restore the front it will not be able, the only question is whether to break surrounded by (and to do so they will have their own, and most likely they have to take a decision as soon as possible) and where to stop offensive militias who still fairly limited forces and now they are attacking with less large.
In the meantime, the once solid front stretching from marinating to Yelenovka broke up into separate pockets of resistance with captured lines of supply. After this disaster is quite clear that the military capabilities to destroy Novorossia have no junta. Squandered in a systematic offensive operations the most capable team, the junta has suffered huge losses and thus suffered a purely military defeat. Southern front collapsed. Novorossia be! "