Collusion Germany and Russia: Ukraine on the edge of the politically inevitable

[DARPA]

Today Angela Merkel arrived in Ukraine to persuade Poroshenko to compromise with Russia, which will remove the threat of full-scale war between Kiev and Moscow

Behind the scenes of one of the main topics of the talks is to remove from the agenda the Crimean problem, which meant a redistribution of spheres of influence in Eastern Europe. From Ukraine, Russia seeking recognition of this shameful annexation

The requirement to recognize the annexation of the Crimea Ukraine equivalent to Hitler's demands to recognize the annexation of the Sudetenland in 1938. Recognition of the annexation of the Sudetenland from Czechoslovakia did not save the final occupation in 1939. Russia and Germany need this concession to enter the situation in the "legitimate field" at the expense of Ukraine.

Ukraine is better to repeat the fate of Poland in 1939, than go the way of the shameful surrender of Czechoslovakia. Until that moment, while there will be at least one square meter of independent Ukraine, Russia recognized the world will not be able to breathe normally, because Ukraine will block all its initiatives "normalize" the situation.

What is the normalization of the situation in Russia?

It legitimized the annexation of the Crimea plus dilution through its federalization of Ukraine, where the regions of the south-east will get independence, which will ensure the transition region under the control of the Russian Federation. This will be an intermediate step to the subsequent separation of the region from the Ukraine and the transformation into a chimeric quasi-state under the name of New Russia. Thus, the first stage of the implementation of this model will record a loss of subjectivity in Ukraine and the actual turning it into a confederation. In the second stage of Ukraine remain scanty stub, consisting of the western regions of Podolia plus plus, possibly, Kiev.

With this scenario, Germany would be economically (and therefore politically) dominate in the western regions of Ukraine, based on an association agreement, signed on 27 June this year

In fact, Germany and Russia will come out of this conflict at the expense of Ukraine. Therefore, we need this "normalization" unprofitable.

Normalize the situation for us - it is to regain the Crimea and "leave Russia" from the Donets Basin, as well as get a base (institutional, economic) to exit from the logic of survival in the logic of development. It will be possible in the case, if we get a stable state institutions, based on a broad social groups. Such a regime should be legitimate in the eyes of the people and in the eyes of the outside world, except for Russia, for obvious reasons.

To go out in this position need to understand a few important points.

Firstly, in the current situation we have nothing to rely on. Europe is controlled by bureaucratic gray mice, who are accustomed to act in the logic of the world. Anything outside of this logic leads them to fear and paralyzes the will. It is fraught with very serious problems for Europe itself, but let's think about their problems.

Second, the United States will support us as much as we resist, the harder will be our resistance to Russia, the higher the level of support. United States, no doubt, realize their interests, aimed at weakening Russia. In doing so, they coincide with the Ukrainian. However, at this stage, the United States will not be drawn into the conflict, at the risk of being alone. They need time to establish a pool of allies in Europe, which will block Germany and then Russia. It takes time, because everything would gain time plays in favor of Ukraine, but not Russia, which will experience more serious effects of the sanctions of the West.

This means that we need new state institutions led rigid cynical, pragmatic policies that will ensure the mobilization of resources of the country for a long struggle.

Our prospects in this fight are, above all, our ability to find the inner resources that will enhance the stability of the state. These reserves are huge and they lie in the plane of the eradication of corruption rents. And eradicating corruption rents directly related to the ability of society to radically revise their outlook on life, to get rid of the old values ​​and new ones that will allow us to survive.

Thus, the success of our struggle does not depend on the United States, not from Germany, not from oil and gas, there is no economy - all this is secondary. Pervichiny value because they create motifs that generate action. Deep crisis in which Ukraine are 23 years of its independence is directly connected with the crisis of values ​​in which there was the late USSR. Ukraine robbed because people live in such a world view, where robbery is a legitimate form of behavior. Anyone who does not rob perceived in such a society, as an eccentric, or an idiot. As a result, over the years of independence, this philosophy of life was brought to their limits when society is actually atomized into separate clans and groups who are desperately competing with each other, devoured the remnants of Soviet infrastructure, creating nothing in return.

However, not all have adopted this philosophy, in fact, many have begun to realize that it is the cause of our troubles. It lies in the subcortex two uprisings in the Maidan.

Today we are in the second stage of slow Ukrainian revolution. It is characterized by the agony of the old regime. People of the old regime even in the face of mortal danger can not abandon the perverse practices samopozhiraniya. Consequently, these people and their organizations will be overturned by the course of history. But what is the course of history? It's always a conflict of interests and actors who are behind these interests. In the struggle of interests formed the direction of motion of society.

Second Independence outlined a request for a new values ​​without which this country and this society will not survive. Modesty, moderation, mutual aid, self-sacrifice, trust must return to our daily lives. The more people who will confess them, the more resources we will have to ensure that Ukraine raise from the ashes. The key question for these people lies in the plane of their organization. In the social struggle no matter how sacred the ideals of a particular social group. Fundamentally important is the ability to consolidate their efforts by system activity through one or another organization. In this timeless lesson worth Maidan, which is not a good way to protect their interests, because it is spontaneous and, therefore, a priori, falls into the outer frame of the management of those entities that are systemically mobilize resources systematically and in fact won every time. In our case, these actors - the oligarchs.

This means one thing, and the latter's resignation Sheremeta it illustrates that all those who want to change something in this country need to realize that it can not be changed from within the swamp, you can not fit into it, and then change from the inside, you can not outflank. Swamp will swamp. Generally, the marsh on either side will swamp.

You can drain the swamp only team to just another system of relations between people, other values​​, other organizations. Solo the brightest, the best, most brilliant people be chewed, gutted, spit it out. These people need to stop being afraid of the government and, especially, to stop being afraid of their claims to power because power gives only tools that transform Ukraine. But, most importantly, only a smart, tough, pragmatic authority thinking interests of the whole society, looking at it as a whole organism, will be capable to preserve Ukraine.

As Milton Friedman wrote, "only a crisis of genuine or imagined - leads to real change. When a crisis occurs, the actions of people depend on their performances. This, I believe, is our main function: to create an alternative to the existing strategies, to maintain their viability and availability up until the politically impossible becomes politically not inevitable. "

Today we stand on the threshold of a situation where the politically impossible becomes politically inevitable. Section of Ukraine in the spirit of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact a year ago seemed impossible to many, today looks ominously inevitable. The disappearance of many of the ruling elite to the political proscenium yesterday seemed impossible has become a historical fact. All that is required when the politically impossible suddenly acquires the features of a politically likely - find easy to act in accordance with his own ideas about the world. Ukraine crosses the Rubicon, their fears and complexes that have kept her in the second zagonchike forever, forever catching up, ever beaten. In the bitter struggle comes to us an understanding of the loneliness and the opportunities that it gives every traveler, who defies fate and is moving forward in spite of all the tests.