A bill to Russia's withdrawal from the WTO

[DARPA]

Communists have always strongly opposed Russia's WTO accession, prepared a bill to withdraw from this trade organization. The timing is, admittedly, a successful - economic aggression of the West breathes reputation as an international trade cooperation. What is the procedure for the withdrawal of the WTO and is it worth doing this?

Lawmakers from the Communist Party want to make a bill of denunciation protocol on Russia's accession to the WTO, the lower house of parliament immediately with the opening of the autumn session and will insist on its consideration as a priority, said the head of the legal service of the Communist Party, deputy chairman of the Duma Committee on Constitutional Legislation Vadim Solovyov.

"In fact, this noose around the neck of Russia and attempt to external control of our country," - said Solovyov. "We are now in response to the sanctions, which are now used against Russia, hope that, maybe, to our colleagues from the State Duma comes that you need urgently denounce this agreement", - said the parliamentarian.

Communists and spravorossy has twice appealed to the Constitutional Court, arguing that the WTO agreement violates the constitution, but the court has twice confirmed that the document complies with Russian law. COP MPs refused in 2013 and in July 2014.

Russia was to WTO membership for 18 years, and joined the organization two years ago. This thorny path because Russia has long traded, trying to clear for themselves the most favorable conditions and long transition periods, which provided a gradual reduction of customs duties on the most sensitive to RF products, rather than an abrupt reset.

The first step has already been taken

Russia could become the first country in the world that came out of the WTO. Although it has the right to make any party, another thing that the documents most likely prescribed exit price, says lawyer of "tax collector" Paul Ivchenkov. "Under the rules of the WTO member countries out of the WTO is possible with heavy fines, determined by the magnitude of damage that may be incurred from the other participants. For example, Russia's withdrawal from the WTO can suffer TNCs have gained access to Russian resources after its entry into the WTO, and then will need to reimburse them for the damage, "- says Ivchenkov.

Therefore, the bill of Communists of Russia's withdrawal from the WTO is unlikely to be adopted. At least not yet. "The proposal of deputies from the Communist Party - no more than a PR stunt verified, but the time for the action they have chosen quite successfully," - said the deputy general director of consulting company HEADS Nikita Kulikov.

Like Poland, whose representative in the European Parliament on the eve called for the removal of the ruble international financial turnover and make it a non-convertible currency. Although the two political statements is a significant difference. Exception of the ruble is impossible, since he already occupies a small share in world trade. MEP statement only says "the degree of political irresponsibility of the author and the level of his intellectual abilities," as finely Naryshkin said.

While the bill Communist Party - is a direct allusion to the West, especially the EU, to where might lead ultimately economic war. WTO - is the symbol of the free movement of goods between the two countries, respectively, out of the WTO can be seen as a threat to close the Russian market from any imports.

First, pretty neat, step in this direction has already made Russia, banning the import of food products. That is, the threat is not based on nothing.

If only come from WTO rules and ignore what is happening now political events, the prohibition of the import of products can already be regarded as a "politically motivated large-scale trade bans," says lawyer of "tax collector" Paul Ivchenkov. This violates the rules of the WTO, namely the principle of non-discrimination in trade and the principle of national treatment.

If it comes to the court of the WTO, Russia will prove his innocence threat of imports for domestic production and a threat to the health or life of the people. And to prove, by the way, Russia will be less than: the same European pork dangerous due to African swine, and dairy and other products do not just fall into the field of view of Rosselkhoznadzor.

And to prove that the import of food products has become a threat to national production, will be even easier. Two years later, we can say that, as expected, heavier just because of the WTO had it to domestic farmers. Problems were even the strongest players.

Hit particularly hard hit by livestock, particularly for pig producers, who scored up to 2012 credits, opening the way modern pig farm, and before he could even return on investment, are faced with the shaft of imported pork, falling prices and production.

The same goes for chicken, some even went bankrupt, for example GC "Optifood" from the Rostov region. As luck would have it, this coincided also with the consumer downturn. And because of the WTO had more government support and industry to reduce and modify.

As a result, a group of "Cherkizovo", for example, figure 2012/2013 year EBITDA Margin (expressed as a percentage ratio of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization to sales revenue) in poultry has decreased from 21 to 10%, and in pig production - with 37 to 17%.

Therefore retaliatory sanctions, which at the same time protect our farmers - very cunning and clever move by Russia. Farmers important to use the "manna from heaven" correctly, to avoid simply replacing one import to another.

Europeans, did not expect such a move, once bustling, counting losses: Poland will lose a year of 800 million euros only on products, but if Moscow would prohibit the delivery of cars, auto parts and electronics, the country will lose another 1.3 billion euros.

Germany - the largest economy in the euro zone and the main sponsor of its depressed economy - acknowledged that the sudden decline in its economic growth in the second quarter due to the Russian sanctions. And to get back to growth, it is necessary to abandon further sanctions against Russia, and Ukrainian crisis resolved. Crisis in Germany even more terrible for the EU than the default of Greece or Spain, because drowning lifeguard.

In general, EU farmers will lose, the most conservative estimate, 7 billion euros, and money for compensation in the European fund - enough to swear, a maximum of 400 million euros. So that the closure of the Russian market also for other commodities may not be for the EU even more serious blow.

Pros and Cons

In the Duma "United Russia", though they find a way out of the WTO measure premature, but do not reject it as absolutely fantastic with worsening economic war.

If sanctions from the West will grow or will come a situation where WTO instruments will be used to put pressure on Russia, the question, and is not it better to get out of the WTO, may be relevant.

However, the deputy chairman of the Duma Committee on Agriculture, member of the General Council of "United Russia" Hope Shkolkina hopes that "this will not happen." "Today, everyone understands that this war, which has already unleashed, including economic, has no one beneficial" - she believes.

"Termination is now the WTO agreement will be an emotional decision rather than pragmatic, given that the real reason is not so much the sanctions which are likely the result, and the situation occurring in Ukraine, which is responsible for the leadership of Ukraine and Russia in this case is rather as a spectator "- agrees Nikita Kulikov.

Yes, and economic arguments Communists not quite clean. They blame the fact that because of the WTO there was a decline in GDP growth from 3.4% of the Russian Federation in 2012 to 1.3% in 2013 and to an estimated 0.2-0.6% in 2014. "However, at this time, in addition to Russia's WTO accession, there was still quite a lot of events that could have a negative impact on the world economy as a whole, so that the GDP of all developed countries, including Russia, began to noticeably decline. This war in Syria, Iraq and Libya, and the fall in oil prices, and, of course, the events in Ukraine "- retorted Nikita Kulikov.

"In terms of agro-industrial complex, I do not see the impact on agriculture - from the point of view of the provisions of the WTO", - says Nadezhda Shkolkina. "On the contrary, we start to work in these rules, apply today more modern forms of support, such as support per hectare, per unit of production", - noticed it.

Finally, while advocating for the protection of the interests of agriculture, engineering and machine tools, the deputies from the Communist Party completely forget that by terminating the agreement of the WTO, Russian companies, in turn, will lose a market for their products, indicating Nikita Kulikov. "And the only way out of this situation would be government subsidies to loss-making enterprises of becoming that more and worse impact on the Russian economy than the impact of WTO membership," - said Kulikov.

According to him, all the fears about what to Russia are treated differently than other members of the WTO are biased. At least until it is. Russia may challenge what it does not like to trade with our partners, we just have to gain experience in the practice of conducting such disputes. We have to learn to work in conditions of the organization on the one hand, aggressive tread on foreign markets, and on the other - to protect its market, says Shkolkina.

However, Roman Terekhin, head of the center, "the public to think," says that out of the WTO, Russia must now. Otherwise, then Russia simply can not manage to avoid further losses. Fear, for example, is that the EU and the United States using the tools of the WTO decide to obtain redress because of the prohibition of imports, he said. The EC has recently announced that it intends to appeal the WTO to undertake consultations in connection with Russia's decision to ban the import of products from the EU.

"Participation in the WTO actually gave nothing of Russia. But the West can push through with the help of the WTO proceedings, which are fraught with millions and even billions of losses, as well as trade restrictions and requirements to fulfill the commitments that Russia undertook when joining the WTO "- says Terekhov.