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Unfavorable forecast: ash from Grimsvotn volcano may reach the UK, France, Sweden, Germany and Poland PDF Print E-mail
Tuesday, 24 May 2011 07:12

 

A few hours ago, the European Aerospace Agency has distributed information about the most probable direction of the ashes from the Grimsvotn volcano in Iceland over the next 72 hours, taking into account the concentration of ash in the atmosphere (see a photos).

Currently, ground radar measurements in Iceland show, that volcanic ash of Grimsvotn volcano reached heights of 12-17 km and travels to Scotland and the coast of France and Germany. The situation was complicated by the fact, that last night in South-eastern Iceland, the weather has deteriorated and have squally gusts of wind.

According to projections, made a few hours ago, given the wind directions in the Grimsvotn volcano in Iceland, it is evident, that this morning the ashes of the Grimsvotn volcano reached the north of Great Britain and Greenland, and tonight the ashes of the Grimsvotn volcano will reach the south of Sweden, north of Germany and Poland. It is projected (see a photos), two days later the situation might deteriorate and the ashes of the Grimsvotn volcano can cover a large part of the UK, and then some Nordic countries, but the concentration of ash in the atmosphere and it is expected low.

However, not all scientists agree that the Nordic countries will feel the presence of volcanic ash of Grimsvotn volcano, for example, as reported by Fred Prata of the Norwegian Institute of Atmospheric Research :"... the eruption Grimsvotn was thrown more ash, than the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull year earlier, but the ashes of the Grimsvotn volcano heavier, so more of the ashes of the Grimsvotn volcano rolled around Iceland, and will not be transferred to European countries, as was in the case with the Eyjafjallajökull volcano year earlier. "

In past years, the eruption of the Grimsvotn volcano continued for several days, and they do not lead to disruptions in the international air communication. The last eruption of the Grimsvotn volcano happened in 2004. Usually, the ashes rises above the Icelandic volcanoes at heights up to 20 kilometers and then carried by air currents for hundreds or thoUSAnds of kilometers from the epicenter of the eruption. Ash deposited from the air precipitation. If the concentration of ash in the air was great, land-surface forms a layer of ash. Near the volcano for a single eruption could settle layer of ash and larger pyroclasts thickness in meters and even a few tens of meters, and now scientists are watching in Iceland, directly adjacent to the volcano Grimsvotn. With increasing distance from the volcano, the ash concentration in the atmosphere decreases with the square of the distance, and the thickness of ash layers decreases rapidly.

According to scientists, is now a volcanic eruption poses no danger to air traffic in Europe, but in the coming days will be checked, whether in the atmosphere of a dangerous concentration of ash. Currently, the situation with the clouds of volcanic ash monitor meteorological satellites in continuous mode. Help them weather stations, launched on balloons and ground stations, equipped with lidars (laser radars). All data are promptly processed and delivered to the air navigation services in Europe, which, in turn, notify the pilots of hazardous concentrations of volcanic ash that may arise on the path of aircraft. Simultaneously, the airline ordered to conduct more thorough inspection of engines for possible damage.

We have already reported on our website, that eruption of Grimsvotn volcano may be the trigger for the eruption of a more powerful eruption in Iceland- the eruption of Katla volcano. Recall that the subglacial Katla volcano leads to rapid ice melting and flooding in adjacent areas with melt water. Eruption of Katla volcano in 1755 caused extensive melting of the glacier, which led to a stream with a flow rate of water 200 000-400 000 m ³/sec. Therefore, European researchers a few days ago was launched round the clock monitoring of the Katla volcano.

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