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Why the ruble will not continue to devaluate - this is a political problem, not an economic - VIDEO PDF Print E-mail
Wednesday, 03 February 2016 04:34

Recently, there are many expert articles that the ruble already all is lost, and such a low price of oil will lead inevitably to its further devaluation, however, for the further devaluation of the ruble is now no such large grounds, normally write about it, is zavismosti from further price oil. So, if you look at the graph of changes in oil prices in national currencies, we can see that the price of oil in rubles has changed in the smallest scale, compared to most countries in the world, including in comparison with the price of oil in the oil-producing countries. This was due to the fact that the ruble in Russia was devalued significantly stronger than the currencies of other countries in relation to the dollar and so did not happen because of the whims of the governments of these countries, and due to the fact that other governments more than the Government of Russia, fears of social tension due to the devaluation of the currency, and social tension in Russia almost reached its predela- increased unemployment, rising prices for food products, etc. Therefore we can say that the Russian government has no further opportunity to devalue it rubl- vyzyvet a deterioration of the economic situation in the country, that the situation could spiral out of control, and nobody is poydet- will keep the ruble by any means, even by spending reserve funds , hoping to gain time. If you look closely at the dynamics of oil prices in the local currency, it can be said that in December 2014 the Government chose a sharp shock option of devaluation - when the ruble collapsed to 85 per dollar, and then regulate the fluctuation of the national currency does not exceed this limit, allowing it to grow with the growth of the cost of oil and this will continue. However, even if oil falls for 20, and even 10 yet have Putin in power, a high probability that the exchange rate will not exceed 95 rubles at certain moments of oil falling and then return below 80 again. If the oil will fluctuate in the corridor of 30-40 dollars per barrel, the ruble may strengthen in the spring of 2016 to 60 rubles per dollar-while maintaining the current government - either 100 or 150 or 200 rubles per dollar is not seen.


НАЖМИТЕ ЗДЕСЬ ДЛЯ ПРОСМОТРА ВСЕГО СПИСКА НОВОСТЕЙ О НЕОБЫЧНЫХ ЯВЛЕНИЯХ>>>

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